Arrival Price AI Analytics

CQG AI Algos


The Arrival Price Algorithm is driven by short-term realized volatility and drift signals as well as market-implied cost of liquidity to execute within a risk-optimized time horizon using trader-defined slippage expectations. Arrival Price is benchmarked against mid-market and sweep to fill (market order) metrics.

"Liquidity Cost, Volatility, and Drift" are the quantities used by the algorithm to compute a theoretically optimal Equilibrium Trading Horizon (White Paper). "Seconds spent" reflects the practical application of this horizon over simulated dynamic market conditions. A "fill stream" is also included to demonstrate the effects of the Market By Order Impact Model, which helps size order slices in a manner consistent with price-level population.

The graphs below illuminate the effects of these indicators on optimal execution horizon and therefore, performance results of hypothetical Arrival Price orders.


Impact Model: MBO
Payup Model: PayupAI
Liquidity Cost:
Implicit cost of liquidity per lot
Volatility:
Normal volatility in dollar terms

 

Drift:
Short-term directional drift
Seconds Spent:
Seconds spent in simulated execution

 

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Sell
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
0.6300
Slippage Sweep
0.5050
Arrival Price
5,941.6250
Average Total
5,940.9950
Destination Price
5,940.6250
Sweep to Fill
5,941.5000
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-06-02T14:34:05.613 SIM:ESM5 Sell 7 5940.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T14:34:09.727 SIM:ESM5 Sell 2 5940.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T14:34:09.727 SIM:ESM5 Sell 5 5940.75 Passive
2025-06-02T14:34:07.651 SIM:ESM5 Sell 4 5940.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T14:34:06.622 SIM:ESM5 Sell 8 5940.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T14:33:58.518 SIM:ESM5 Sell 4 5941.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T14:34:02.612 SIM:ESM5 Sell 11 5941.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T14:34:00.542 SIM:ESM5 Sell 3 5941.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T14:33:59.512 SIM:ESM5 Sell 5 5941.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T14:33:57.512 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5941.5 Aggressive

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Buy
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
0.2950
Slippage Sweep
0.1400
Arrival Price
5,941.6250
Average Total
5,941.9200
Destination Price
5,941.6250
Sweep to Fill
5,941.7800
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-06-02T14:33:56.767 SIM:ESM5 Buy 7 5942 Aggressive
2025-06-02T14:33:49.172 SIM:ESM5 Buy 5 5942 Aggressive
2025-06-02T14:33:48.213 SIM:ESM5 Buy 4 5942 Aggressive
2025-06-02T14:33:57.268 SIM:ESM5 Buy 11 5941.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T14:33:54.812 SIM:ESM5 Buy 4 5942 Aggressive
2025-06-02T14:33:54.538 SIM:ESM5 Buy 8 5942 Aggressive
2025-06-02T14:33:51.842 SIM:ESM5 Buy 5 5942 Aggressive
2025-06-02T14:33:51.842 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5942 Aggressive
2025-06-02T14:33:51.841 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5941.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T14:33:51.841 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5941.75 Passive
2025-06-02T14:33:51.841 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5941.75 Passive
2025-06-02T14:33:51.841 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5941.75 Passive
2025-06-02T14:33:47.197 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5941.75 Aggressive

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Sell
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
0.2200
Slippage Sweep
0.0950
Arrival Price
5,942.3750
Average Total
5,942.1550
Destination Price
5,942.3750
Sweep to Fill
5,942.2500
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-06-02T14:33:16.378 SIM:ESM5 Sell 7 5942.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T14:33:08.527 SIM:ESM5 Sell 4 5942 Aggressive
2025-06-02T14:33:08.527 SIM:ESM5 Sell 5 5942 Aggressive
2025-06-02T14:33:08.527 SIM:ESM5 Sell 3 5942 Aggressive
2025-06-02T14:33:13.232 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5942.25 Passive
2025-06-02T14:33:13.232 SIM:ESM5 Sell 3 5942.25 Passive
2025-06-02T14:33:13.232 SIM:ESM5 Sell 2 5942.25 Passive
2025-06-02T14:33:13.232 SIM:ESM5 Sell 2 5942.25 Passive
2025-06-02T14:33:12.351 SIM:ESM5 Sell 7 5942 Aggressive
2025-06-02T14:33:04.258 SIM:ESM5 Sell 9 5942.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T14:33:03.259 SIM:ESM5 Sell 2 5942.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T14:33:03.259 SIM:ESM5 Sell 4 5942.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T14:33:02.613 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5942.25 Aggressive

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Buy
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
0.1750
Slippage Sweep
0.0200
Arrival Price
5,942.6250
Average Total
5,942.8000
Destination Price
5,942.6250
Sweep to Fill
5,942.7800
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-06-02T14:32:57.83 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5943 Aggressive
2025-06-02T14:32:56.824 SIM:ESM5 Buy 7 5942.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T14:32:55.6 SIM:ESM5 Buy 2 5943 Aggressive
2025-06-02T14:32:55.6 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5942.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T14:32:55.6 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5942.75 Passive
2025-06-02T14:33:01.912 SIM:ESM5 Buy 10 5942.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T14:33:01.912 SIM:ESM5 Buy 8 5942.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T14:33:01 SIM:ESM5 Buy 2 5942.75 Passive
2025-06-02T14:33:01 SIM:ESM5 Buy 5 5942.75 Passive
2025-06-02T14:33:01 SIM:ESM5 Buy 5 5942.75 Passive
2025-06-02T14:32:59.841 SIM:ESM5 Buy 7 5943 Aggressive
2025-06-02T14:32:54.201 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5942.75 Aggressive

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Sell
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
0.0550
Slippage Sweep
-0.1850
Arrival Price
5,941.8750
Average Total
5,941.8200
Destination Price
5,942.1250
Sweep to Fill
5,941.6350
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-06-02T14:32:21.438 SIM:ESM5 Sell 24 5941.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T14:32:23.412 SIM:ESM5 Sell 11 5942 Aggressive
2025-06-02T14:32:23.331 SIM:ESM5 Sell 5 5941.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T14:32:23.331 SIM:ESM5 Sell 2 5942 Aggressive
2025-06-02T14:32:23.331 SIM:ESM5 Sell 2 5942 Passive
2025-06-02T14:32:19.755 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5941.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T14:32:19.755 SIM:ESM5 Sell 2 5941.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T14:32:19.755 SIM:ESM5 Sell 2 5941.75 Passive
2025-06-02T14:32:18.345 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5941.75 Aggressive

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Buy
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
-0.1000
Slippage Sweep
-0.2250
Arrival Price
5,941.8750
Average Total
5,941.7750
Destination Price
5,941.6250
Sweep to Fill
5,942.0000
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-06-02T14:32:17.97 SIM:ESM5 Buy 23 5941.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T14:32:16.853 SIM:ESM5 Buy 5 5942 Aggressive
2025-06-02T14:32:16.853 SIM:ESM5 Buy 21 5941.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T14:32:16.431 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5941.75 Passive

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Sell
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
0.0200
Slippage Sweep
-0.3150
Arrival Price
5,943.3750
Average Total
5,943.3550
Destination Price
5,943.3750
Sweep to Fill
5,943.0400
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-06-02T14:31:41.078 SIM:ESM5 Sell 12 5943.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T14:31:45.175 SIM:ESM5 Sell 12 5943.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T14:31:43.308 SIM:ESM5 Sell 8 5943.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T14:31:42.134 SIM:ESM5 Sell 9 5943.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T14:31:39.979 SIM:ESM5 Sell 7 5943.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T14:31:39.212 SIM:ESM5 Sell 2 5943.5 Passive

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Buy
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
-0.0400
Slippage Sweep
-0.1650
Arrival Price
5,943.3750
Average Total
5,943.3350
Destination Price
5,943.1250
Sweep to Fill
5,943.5000
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-06-02T14:31:37.552 SIM:ESM5 Buy 3 5943.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T14:31:37.552 SIM:ESM5 Buy 27 5943.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T14:31:35.521 SIM:ESM5 Buy 2 5943.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T14:31:36.514 SIM:ESM5 Buy 11 5943.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T14:31:36.514 SIM:ESM5 Buy 6 5943.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T14:31:34.485 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5943.5 Aggressive

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Sell
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
0.4350
Slippage Sweep
0.3100
Arrival Price
5,943.1250
Average Total
5,942.6900
Destination Price
5,942.1250
Sweep to Fill
5,943.0000
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-06-02T14:30:55.675 SIM:ESM5 Sell 2 5942.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T14:31:04.225 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5942.25 Passive
2025-06-02T14:31:04.225 SIM:ESM5 Sell 5 5942.25 Passive
2025-06-02T14:30:58.817 SIM:ESM5 Sell 3 5942 Passive
2025-06-02T14:30:58.816 SIM:ESM5 Sell 2 5942 Passive
2025-06-02T14:30:58.816 SIM:ESM5 Sell 2 5942 Passive
2025-06-02T14:30:51.645 SIM:ESM5 Sell 9 5943 Aggressive
2025-06-02T14:31:02.735 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5942 Aggressive
2025-06-02T14:30:56.685 SIM:ESM5 Sell 4 5942.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T14:30:50.647 SIM:ESM5 Sell 10 5943 Aggressive
2025-06-02T14:30:50.501 SIM:ESM5 Sell 5 5943 Aggressive
2025-06-02T14:30:50.501 SIM:ESM5 Sell 2 5943.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T14:30:50.501 SIM:ESM5 Sell 2 5943.25 Passive
2025-06-02T14:30:50.501 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5943.25 Passive
2025-06-02T14:30:50.5 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5943.25 Passive

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Buy
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
-0.1200
Slippage Sweep
-0.2500
Arrival Price
5,943.3750
Average Total
5,943.2550
Destination Price
5,943.1250
Sweep to Fill
5,943.5050
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-06-02T14:30:48.396 SIM:ESM5 Buy 49 5943.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T14:30:47.365 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5943.5 Aggressive

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Sell
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
0.6600
Slippage Sweep
0.4200
Arrival Price
5,944.1250
Average Total
5,943.4650
Destination Price
5,943.6250
Sweep to Fill
5,943.8850
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-06-02T14:30:16.082 SIM:ESM5 Sell 3 5943.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T14:30:11.788 SIM:ESM5 Sell 4 5943 Aggressive
2025-06-02T14:30:14.834 SIM:ESM5 Sell 7 5943.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T14:30:10.512 SIM:ESM5 Sell 6 5943 Aggressive
2025-06-02T14:30:10.512 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5943.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T14:30:10.512 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5943.25 Passive
2025-06-02T14:30:08.436 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5943.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T14:30:08.436 SIM:ESM5 Sell 7 5943.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T14:30:04.426 SIM:ESM5 Sell 4 5943.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T14:30:06.474 SIM:ESM5 Sell 9 5943.5 Passive
2025-06-02T14:30:03.412 SIM:ESM5 Sell 6 5944 Aggressive
2025-06-02T14:30:03.086 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5944.25 Passive

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Buy
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
0.3300
Slippage Sweep
0.2050
Arrival Price
5,943.8750
Average Total
5,944.2050
Destination Price
5,943.8750
Sweep to Fill
5,944.0000
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-06-02T14:29:54.813 SIM:ESM5 Buy 3 5944.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T14:29:54.813 SIM:ESM5 Buy 2 5944 Aggressive
2025-06-02T14:29:54.813 SIM:ESM5 Buy 2 5944.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T14:29:54.813 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5944 Aggressive
2025-06-02T14:29:54.813 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5944 Passive
2025-06-02T14:29:53.717 SIM:ESM5 Buy 4 5944.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T14:29:51.725 SIM:ESM5 Buy 4 5944.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T14:30:02.105 SIM:ESM5 Buy 3 5944 Aggressive
2025-06-02T14:29:58.243 SIM:ESM5 Buy 2 5944.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T14:29:58.243 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5944.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T14:29:58.243 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5944.25 Passive
2025-06-02T14:29:56.775 SIM:ESM5 Buy 4 5944.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T14:29:56.625 SIM:ESM5 Buy 3 5944.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T14:29:52.712 SIM:ESM5 Buy 4 5944.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T14:29:47.721 SIM:ESM5 Buy 3 5944 Aggressive
2025-06-02T14:29:50.758 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5944.25 Passive
2025-06-02T14:29:50.758 SIM:ESM5 Buy 4 5944.25 Passive
2025-06-02T14:29:49.682 SIM:ESM5 Buy 6 5944.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T14:29:46.66 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5944 Aggressive

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Sell
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
0.5800
Slippage Sweep
0.4550
Arrival Price
5,944.6250
Average Total
5,944.0450
Destination Price
5,944.1250
Sweep to Fill
5,944.5000
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-06-02T14:29:08.813 SIM:ESM5 Sell 4 5944 Aggressive
2025-06-02T14:29:06.612 SIM:ESM5 Sell 5 5944 Aggressive
2025-06-02T14:29:15.712 SIM:ESM5 Sell 3 5944 Aggressive
2025-06-02T14:29:13.714 SIM:ESM5 Sell 2 5944 Passive
2025-06-02T14:29:13.714 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5944 Passive
2025-06-02T14:29:13.714 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5944 Passive
2025-06-02T14:29:11.713 SIM:ESM5 Sell 12 5943.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T14:29:07.548 SIM:ESM5 Sell 2 5944 Aggressive
2025-06-02T14:29:07.548 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5944.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T14:29:07.548 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5944.25 Passive
2025-06-02T14:29:04.013 SIM:ESM5 Sell 10 5944.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T14:29:12.712 SIM:ESM5 Sell 3 5943.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T14:29:05.52 SIM:ESM5 Sell 4 5944 Aggressive
2025-06-02T14:29:02.512 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5944.5 Aggressive

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Buy
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
0.0700
Slippage Sweep
-0.1100
Arrival Price
5,944.8750
Average Total
5,944.9450
Destination Price
5,944.6250
Sweep to Fill
5,945.0550
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-06-02T14:28:58.06 SIM:ESM5 Buy 4 5945 Aggressive
2025-06-02T14:29:02.232 SIM:ESM5 Buy 11 5944.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T14:29:01.038 SIM:ESM5 Buy 8 5945 Aggressive
2025-06-02T14:29:00.119 SIM:ESM5 Buy 11 5945 Aggressive
2025-06-02T14:29:00.119 SIM:ESM5 Buy 8 5945 Aggressive
2025-06-02T14:28:59.164 SIM:ESM5 Buy 7 5945 Aggressive
2025-06-02T14:28:57.046 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5945 Aggressive

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Sell
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
-0.1000
Slippage Sweep
-0.2250
Arrival Price
5,944.6250
Average Total
5,944.7250
Destination Price
5,944.8750
Sweep to Fill
5,944.5000
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-06-02T14:28:26.549 SIM:ESM5 Sell 23 5944.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T14:28:25.536 SIM:ESM5 Sell 3 5944.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T14:28:25.536 SIM:ESM5 Sell 22 5944.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T14:28:24.516 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5944.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T14:28:24.315 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5944.5 Aggressive