Arrival Price AI Analytics

CQG AI Algos


The Arrival Price Algorithm is driven by short-term realized volatility and drift signals as well as market-implied cost of liquidity to execute within a risk-optimized time horizon using trader-defined slippage expectations. Arrival Price is benchmarked against mid-market and sweep to fill (market order) metrics.

"Liquidity Cost, Volatility, and Drift" are the quantities used by the algorithm to compute a theoretically optimal Equilibrium Trading Horizon (White Paper). "Seconds spent" reflects the practical application of this horizon over simulated dynamic market conditions. A "fill stream" is also included to demonstrate the effects of the Market By Order Impact Model, which helps size order slices in a manner consistent with price-level population.

The graphs below illuminate the effects of these indicators on optimal execution horizon and therefore, performance results of hypothetical Arrival Price orders.


Impact Model: MBO
Payup Model: PayupAI
Liquidity Cost:
Implicit cost of liquidity per lot
Volatility:
Normal volatility in dollar terms

 

Drift:
Short-term directional drift
Seconds Spent:
Seconds spent in simulated execution

 

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Buy
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
1.1200
Slippage Sweep
0.6600
Arrival Price
5,320.3750
Average Total
5,321.4950
Destination Price
5,321.6250
Sweep to Fill
5,320.8350
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-04-17T14:19:06.054 SIM:ESM5 Buy 2 5320.75 Aggressive
2025-04-17T14:19:07.073 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5320.25 Aggressive
2025-04-17T14:19:07.073 SIM:ESM5 Buy 2 5320.25 Aggressive
2025-04-17T14:19:08.078 SIM:ESM5 Buy 18 5321.5 Aggressive
2025-04-17T14:19:08.078 SIM:ESM5 Buy 7 5321.5 Passive
2025-04-17T14:19:09.071 SIM:ESM5 Buy 2 5321.5 Aggressive
2025-04-17T14:19:09.071 SIM:ESM5 Buy 8 5321.75 Aggressive
2025-04-17T14:19:10.098 SIM:ESM5 Buy 8 5321.75 Aggressive
2025-04-17T14:19:10.098 SIM:ESM5 Buy 2 5322 Aggressive

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Buy
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
0.8050
Slippage Sweep
0.3700
Arrival Price
5,319.8750
Average Total
5,320.6800
Destination Price
5,320.6250
Sweep to Fill
5,320.3100
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-04-17T14:15:52.132 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5320 Passive
2025-04-17T14:15:52.132 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5320 Aggressive
2025-04-17T14:15:53.212 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5320 Aggressive
2025-04-17T14:15:54.175 SIM:ESM5 Buy 8 5320.75 Aggressive
2025-04-17T14:15:54.175 SIM:ESM5 Buy 4 5321 Aggressive
2025-04-17T14:15:55.212 SIM:ESM5 Buy 9 5320.5 Aggressive
2025-04-17T14:15:55.212 SIM:ESM5 Buy 6 5320.75 Aggressive
2025-04-17T14:15:56.24 SIM:ESM5 Buy 9 5320.75 Aggressive
2025-04-17T14:15:56.24 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5320.75 Passive
2025-04-17T14:15:57.252 SIM:ESM5 Buy 9 5320.75 Aggressive
2025-04-17T14:15:57.252 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5320.75 Aggressive

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Sell
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
1.1850
Slippage Sweep
0.7050
Arrival Price
5,331.6250
Average Total
5,330.4400
Destination Price
5,330.6250
Sweep to Fill
5,331.1450
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-04-17T14:02:07.812 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5331.5 Aggressive
2025-04-17T14:02:08.812 SIM:ESM5 Sell 3 5330.5 Aggressive
2025-04-17T14:02:08.812 SIM:ESM5 Sell 10 5330.25 Aggressive
2025-04-17T14:02:10.826 SIM:ESM5 Sell 8 5330.75 Aggressive
2025-04-17T14:02:10.826 SIM:ESM5 Sell 4 5330.5 Aggressive
2025-04-17T14:02:11.849 SIM:ESM5 Sell 11 5330.25 Aggressive
2025-04-17T14:02:11.851 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5330.5 Passive
2025-04-17T14:02:11.851 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5330.5 Passive
2025-04-17T14:02:11.851 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5330.5 Aggressive
2025-04-17T14:02:11.851 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5330.5 Aggressive
2025-04-17T14:02:14.879 SIM:ESM5 Sell 3 5330.25 Aggressive
2025-04-17T14:02:14.905 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5330.5 Passive
2025-04-17T14:02:14.905 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5330.5 Passive
2025-04-17T14:02:14.905 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5330.5 Passive
2025-04-17T14:02:17.89 SIM:ESM5 Sell 3 5330.5 Aggressive

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Buy
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
-0.0850
Slippage Sweep
-0.6300
Arrival Price
5,329.1250
Average Total
5,329.0400
Destination Price
5,330.2500
Sweep to Fill
5,329.6700
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-04-17T14:01:52.012 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5329 Passive
2025-04-17T14:01:52.753 SIM:ESM5 Buy 4 5329.25 Aggressive
2025-04-17T14:01:53.813 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5329.25 Aggressive
2025-04-17T14:01:54.765 SIM:ESM5 Buy 2 5329.25 Aggressive
2025-04-17T14:01:55.857 SIM:ESM5 Buy 5 5328.75 Aggressive
2025-04-17T14:01:55.857 SIM:ESM5 Buy 4 5328.75 Passive
2025-04-17T14:01:55.857 SIM:ESM5 Buy 4 5328.75 Passive
2025-04-17T14:01:55.857 SIM:ESM5 Buy 4 5328.75 Passive
2025-04-17T14:01:55.857 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5328.75 Passive
2025-04-17T14:01:56.788 SIM:ESM5 Buy 5 5328.75 Aggressive
2025-04-17T14:01:56.788 SIM:ESM5 Buy 5 5329 Aggressive
2025-04-17T14:01:56.788 SIM:ESM5 Buy 4 5328.75 Aggressive
2025-04-17T14:01:57.851 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5329 Aggressive
2025-04-17T14:01:58.013 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5328.75 Passive
2025-04-17T14:01:58.013 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5328.75 Aggressive
2025-04-17T14:01:58.865 SIM:ESM5 Buy 6 5330 Aggressive
2025-04-17T14:01:59.84 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5330.5 Aggressive

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Sell
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
-0.5100
Slippage Sweep
-1.1150
Arrival Price
5,340.1250
Average Total
5,340.6350
Destination Price
5,341.0000
Sweep to Fill
5,339.5200
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-04-17T13:55:44.112 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5339.75 Aggressive
2025-04-17T13:55:45.112 SIM:ESM5 Sell 5 5341.25 Aggressive
2025-04-17T13:55:45.112 SIM:ESM5 Sell 7 5341 Aggressive
2025-04-17T13:55:46.134 SIM:ESM5 Sell 12 5340.5 Aggressive
2025-04-17T13:55:46.135 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5340.25 Aggressive
2025-04-17T13:55:47.131 SIM:ESM5 Sell 6 5340.5 Aggressive
2025-04-17T13:55:47.131 SIM:ESM5 Sell 2 5340.25 Aggressive
2025-04-17T13:55:48.149 SIM:ESM5 Sell 10 5340.5 Aggressive
2025-04-17T13:55:48.149 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5340.25 Aggressive
2025-04-17T13:55:56.272 SIM:ESM5 Sell 5 5340.75 Aggressive

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Buy
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
0.9900
Slippage Sweep
0.2600
Arrival Price
5,343.8750
Average Total
5,344.8650
Destination Price
5,346.0000
Sweep to Fill
5,344.6050
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-04-17T13:48:04.661 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5344.5 Aggressive
2025-04-17T13:48:05.673 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5343.75 Aggressive
2025-04-17T13:48:05.673 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5343.75 Aggressive
2025-04-17T13:48:06.688 SIM:ESM5 Buy 7 5343.5 Aggressive
2025-04-17T13:48:06.688 SIM:ESM5 Buy 3 5343.75 Aggressive
2025-04-17T13:48:07.712 SIM:ESM5 Buy 6 5344.5 Aggressive
2025-04-17T13:48:07.712 SIM:ESM5 Buy 2 5344.5 Aggressive
2025-04-17T13:48:08.768 SIM:ESM5 Buy 6 5344.5 Aggressive
2025-04-17T13:48:09.754 SIM:ESM5 Buy 11 5346 Aggressive
2025-04-17T13:48:09.754 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5346 Passive
2025-04-17T13:48:10.77 SIM:ESM5 Buy 5 5346.25 Aggressive
2025-04-17T13:48:10.77 SIM:ESM5 Buy 3 5346.25 Aggressive
2025-04-17T13:48:16.456 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5343.5 Passive
2025-04-17T13:48:16.456 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5343.5 Passive
2025-04-17T13:48:16.456 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5343.5 Passive

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Sell
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
0.6250
Slippage Sweep
-0.0700
Arrival Price
5,350.8750
Average Total
5,350.2500
Destination Price
5,351.6250
Sweep to Fill
5,350.1800
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-04-17T13:47:09.943 SIM:ESM5 Sell 4 5349.5 Aggressive
2025-04-17T13:47:09.943 SIM:ESM5 Sell 9 5349.25 Aggressive
2025-04-17T13:47:09.943 SIM:ESM5 Sell 4 5349.5 Aggressive
2025-04-17T13:47:09.943 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5349.5 Passive
2025-04-17T13:47:10.975 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5350.25 Aggressive
2025-04-17T13:47:15 SIM:ESM5 Sell 3 5351 Aggressive
2025-04-17T13:47:19.038 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5350 Aggressive
2025-04-17T13:47:19.038 SIM:ESM5 Sell 8 5349.75 Aggressive
2025-04-17T13:47:19.038 SIM:ESM5 Sell 5 5349.5 Aggressive
2025-04-17T13:47:20.073 SIM:ESM5 Sell 4 5352 Aggressive
2025-04-17T13:47:20.073 SIM:ESM5 Sell 6 5351.75 Aggressive
2025-04-17T13:47:21.07 SIM:ESM5 Sell 2 5351.5 Aggressive
2025-04-17T13:47:22.112 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5351.75 Aggressive
2025-04-17T13:47:22.112 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5351.75 Passive

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Buy
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
1.5200
Slippage Sweep
0.9050
Arrival Price
5,348.1250
Average Total
5,349.6450
Destination Price
5,349.7500
Sweep to Fill
5,348.7400
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-04-17T13:46:53.167 SIM:ESM5 Buy 2 5348.5 Aggressive
2025-04-17T13:46:55.212 SIM:ESM5 Buy 8 5349.25 Aggressive
2025-04-17T13:46:56.223 SIM:ESM5 Buy 10 5350 Aggressive
2025-04-17T13:46:57.248 SIM:ESM5 Buy 10 5349.75 Aggressive
2025-04-17T13:46:57.248 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5349.75 Passive
2025-04-17T13:46:58.241 SIM:ESM5 Buy 3 5349.5 Aggressive
2025-04-17T13:46:58.241 SIM:ESM5 Buy 5 5349.5 Passive
2025-04-17T13:46:58.241 SIM:ESM5 Buy 4 5349.5 Passive
2025-04-17T13:46:59.246 SIM:ESM5 Buy 3 5350 Aggressive
2025-04-17T13:46:59.246 SIM:ESM5 Buy 4 5350 Aggressive

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Buy
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
-0.3800
Slippage Sweep
-0.9300
Arrival Price
5,351.1250
Average Total
5,350.7450
Destination Price
5,350.2500
Sweep to Fill
5,351.6750
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-04-17T13:42:06.133 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5351.25 Aggressive
2025-04-17T13:42:07.137 SIM:ESM5 Buy 6 5350.75 Aggressive
2025-04-17T13:42:07.137 SIM:ESM5 Buy 5 5351 Aggressive
2025-04-17T13:42:08.138 SIM:ESM5 Buy 8 5350.75 Aggressive
2025-04-17T13:42:08.139 SIM:ESM5 Buy 5 5351 Aggressive
2025-04-17T13:42:09.312 SIM:ESM5 Buy 8 5350.75 Aggressive
2025-04-17T13:42:09.312 SIM:ESM5 Buy 3 5350.75 Passive
2025-04-17T13:42:10.246 SIM:ESM5 Buy 13 5350.5 Aggressive
2025-04-17T13:42:10.246 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5350.75 Aggressive

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Sell
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
0.6850
Slippage Sweep
0.2500
Arrival Price
5,352.1250
Average Total
5,351.4400
Destination Price
5,351.6250
Sweep to Fill
5,351.6900
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-04-17T13:37:28.924 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5352 Aggressive
2025-04-17T13:37:29.933 SIM:ESM5 Sell 3 5352 Aggressive
2025-04-17T13:37:30.961 SIM:ESM5 Sell 6 5351.5 Aggressive
2025-04-17T13:37:30.961 SIM:ESM5 Sell 2 5351.25 Aggressive
2025-04-17T13:37:32.961 SIM:ESM5 Sell 5 5351.5 Aggressive
2025-04-17T13:37:32.961 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5351.5 Aggressive
2025-04-17T13:37:33.993 SIM:ESM5 Sell 5 5351.5 Aggressive
2025-04-17T13:37:33.993 SIM:ESM5 Sell 2 5351.25 Aggressive
2025-04-17T13:37:38.027 SIM:ESM5 Sell 3 5351.5 Aggressive
2025-04-17T13:37:38.027 SIM:ESM5 Sell 10 5351.25 Aggressive
2025-04-17T13:37:39.017 SIM:ESM5 Sell 6 5351.5 Aggressive
2025-04-17T13:37:39.017 SIM:ESM5 Sell 6 5351.25 Aggressive

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Sell
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
-0.2200
Slippage Sweep
-0.6200
Arrival Price
5,349.1250
Average Total
5,349.3450
Destination Price
5,349.8750
Sweep to Fill
5,348.7250
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-04-17T13:34:57.012 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5349 Aggressive
2025-04-17T13:34:58.113 SIM:ESM5 Sell 19 5349.25 Aggressive
2025-04-17T13:34:58.113 SIM:ESM5 Sell 4 5349 Aggressive
2025-04-17T13:34:59.112 SIM:ESM5 Sell 10 5349.25 Aggressive
2025-04-17T13:34:59.213 SIM:ESM5 Sell 4 5349.25 Aggressive
2025-04-17T13:35:00.029 SIM:ESM5 Sell 6 5349.75 Aggressive
2025-04-17T13:35:00.029 SIM:ESM5 Sell 5 5349.75 Aggressive
2025-04-17T13:35:00.029 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5349.75 Passive

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Buy
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
-0.1200
Slippage Sweep
-0.6450
Arrival Price
5,349.6250
Average Total
5,349.5050
Destination Price
5,349.2500
Sweep to Fill
5,350.1500
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-04-17T13:34:45.412 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5349.75 Aggressive
2025-04-17T13:34:46.412 SIM:ESM5 Buy 9 5349.5 Aggressive
2025-04-17T13:34:46.412 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5349.5 Aggressive
2025-04-17T13:34:47.446 SIM:ESM5 Buy 16 5349.5 Aggressive
2025-04-17T13:34:47.446 SIM:ESM5 Buy 8 5349.5 Passive
2025-04-17T13:34:49.426 SIM:ESM5 Buy 3 5349.5 Aggressive
2025-04-17T13:34:49.426 SIM:ESM5 Buy 4 5349.5 Aggressive
2025-04-17T13:34:50.461 SIM:ESM5 Buy 5 5349.5 Aggressive
2025-04-17T13:34:50.461 SIM:ESM5 Buy 3 5349.5 Aggressive

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Buy
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
-0.7600
Slippage Sweep
-1.1600
Arrival Price
5,355.1250
Average Total
5,354.3650
Destination Price
5,354.3750
Sweep to Fill
5,355.5250
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-04-17T13:34:01.513 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5355 Passive
2025-04-17T13:34:02.212 SIM:ESM5 Buy 2 5355 Aggressive
2025-04-17T13:34:03.227 SIM:ESM5 Buy 4 5354.75 Aggressive
2025-04-17T13:34:03.227 SIM:ESM5 Buy 11 5355 Aggressive
2025-04-17T13:34:04.254 SIM:ESM5 Buy 9 5353.75 Aggressive
2025-04-17T13:34:04.254 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5354 Aggressive
2025-04-17T13:34:05.253 SIM:ESM5 Buy 10 5353.75 Aggressive
2025-04-17T13:34:06.247 SIM:ESM5 Buy 7 5354.5 Aggressive
2025-04-17T13:34:06.247 SIM:ESM5 Buy 5 5354.5 Aggressive

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Buy
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
-0.5000
Slippage Sweep
-0.9900
Arrival Price
5,350.6250
Average Total
5,350.1250
Destination Price
5,349.6250
Sweep to Fill
5,351.1150
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-04-17T13:29:11.392 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5350.75 Aggressive
2025-04-17T13:29:11.826 SIM:ESM5 Buy 2 5350.75 Aggressive
2025-04-17T13:29:12.754 SIM:ESM5 Buy 8 5350.25 Aggressive
2025-04-17T13:29:12.754 SIM:ESM5 Buy 5 5350.5 Aggressive
2025-04-17T13:29:13.722 SIM:ESM5 Buy 13 5350.25 Aggressive
2025-04-17T13:29:13.722 SIM:ESM5 Buy 3 5350.25 Passive
2025-04-17T13:29:14.76 SIM:ESM5 Buy 12 5349.75 Aggressive
2025-04-17T13:29:14.76 SIM:ESM5 Buy 6 5349.75 Aggressive

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Buy
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
0.4150
Slippage Sweep
-0.0900
Arrival Price
5,356.6250
Average Total
5,357.0400
Destination Price
5,357.3750
Sweep to Fill
5,357.1300
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-04-17T13:23:09.152 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5356.75 Aggressive
2025-04-17T13:23:10.112 SIM:ESM5 Buy 2 5356.75 Aggressive
2025-04-17T13:23:11.119 SIM:ESM5 Buy 2 5356.75 Aggressive
2025-04-17T13:23:12.145 SIM:ESM5 Buy 14 5357 Aggressive
2025-04-17T13:23:12.145 SIM:ESM5 Buy 5 5357 Passive
2025-04-17T13:23:14.117 SIM:ESM5 Buy 11 5357 Aggressive
2025-04-17T13:23:14.117 SIM:ESM5 Buy 3 5357.25 Aggressive
2025-04-17T13:23:14.117 SIM:ESM5 Buy 7 5357 Aggressive
2025-04-17T13:23:15.137 SIM:ESM5 Buy 2 5357.5 Aggressive
2025-04-17T13:23:15.137 SIM:ESM5 Buy 3 5357.5 Aggressive