Arrival Price AI Analytics

CQG AI Algos


The Arrival Price Algorithm is driven by short-term realized volatility and drift signals as well as market-implied cost of liquidity to execute within a risk-optimized time horizon using trader-defined slippage expectations. Arrival Price is benchmarked against mid-market and sweep to fill (market order) metrics.

"Liquidity Cost, Volatility, and Drift" are the quantities used by the algorithm to compute a theoretically optimal Equilibrium Trading Horizon (White Paper). "Seconds spent" reflects the practical application of this horizon over simulated dynamic market conditions. A "fill stream" is also included to demonstrate the effects of the Market By Order Impact Model, which helps size order slices in a manner consistent with price-level population.

The graphs below illuminate the effects of these indicators on optimal execution horizon and therefore, performance results of hypothetical Arrival Price orders.


Impact Model: MBO
Payup Model: PayupAI
Liquidity Cost:
Implicit cost of liquidity per lot
Volatility:
Normal volatility in dollar terms

 

Drift:
Short-term directional drift
Seconds Spent:
Seconds spent in simulated execution

 

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Buy
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
0.1100
Slippage Sweep
-0.0350
Arrival Price
5,949.1250
Average Total
5,949.2350
Destination Price
5,948.8750
Sweep to Fill
5,949.2700
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-06-02T15:56:47.675 SIM:ESM5 Buy 6 5949.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:56:45.943 SIM:ESM5 Buy 6 5949.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:57:07.284 SIM:ESM5 Buy 3 5949 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:56:49.987 SIM:ESM5 Buy 6 5949.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:56:46.976 SIM:ESM5 Buy 6 5949.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:56:44.76 SIM:ESM5 Buy 7 5949.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:56:43.762 SIM:ESM5 Buy 7 5949.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:56:43.212 SIM:ESM5 Buy 8 5949.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:56:43.212 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5949.25 Aggressive

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Sell
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
0.4300
Slippage Sweep
0.2400
Arrival Price
5,949.8750
Average Total
5,949.4450
Destination Price
5,949.3750
Sweep to Fill
5,949.6850
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-06-02T15:56:06.582 SIM:ESM5 Sell 2 5949.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:56:04.558 SIM:ESM5 Sell 2 5949.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:56:04.558 SIM:ESM5 Sell 2 5949.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:56:02.382 SIM:ESM5 Sell 2 5949.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:56:00.613 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5949.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:56:00.312 SIM:ESM5 Sell 2 5949.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:55:56.57 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5949.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:56:11.327 SIM:ESM5 Sell 20 5949.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:55:54.95 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5949.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:56:09.586 SIM:ESM5 Sell 2 5949.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:56:06.054 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5949.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:56:01.381 SIM:ESM5 Sell 10 5949.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:55:58.542 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5949.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:55:55.442 SIM:ESM5 Sell 2 5949.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:55:53.46 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5949.75 Aggressive

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Buy
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
0.1800
Slippage Sweep
-0.1400
Arrival Price
5,949.8750
Average Total
5,950.0550
Destination Price
5,950.1250
Sweep to Fill
5,950.1950
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-06-02T15:55:43.116 SIM:ESM5 Buy 2 5950 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:55:42.099 SIM:ESM5 Buy 2 5950 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:55:41.646 SIM:ESM5 Buy 2 5950 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:55:36.975 SIM:ESM5 Buy 3 5950 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:55:40.657 SIM:ESM5 Buy 2 5950 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:55:39.933 SIM:ESM5 Buy 2 5950 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:55:38.696 SIM:ESM5 Buy 3 5950 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:55:36.139 SIM:ESM5 Buy 3 5950 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:55:34.935 SIM:ESM5 Buy 2 5950 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:55:34.212 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5950.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:55:52.397 SIM:ESM5 Buy 8 5950.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:55:52.397 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5950.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:55:52.397 SIM:ESM5 Buy 7 5950 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:55:52.396 SIM:ESM5 Buy 7 5950 Passive
2025-06-02T15:55:52.396 SIM:ESM5 Buy 2 5950 Passive
2025-06-02T15:55:52.396 SIM:ESM5 Buy 2 5950 Passive
2025-06-02T15:55:32.913 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5950.25 Aggressive

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Sell
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
0.2150
Slippage Sweep
0.0650
Arrival Price
5,948.8750
Average Total
5,948.6600
Destination Price
5,948.6250
Sweep to Fill
5,948.7250
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-06-02T15:54:57.692 SIM:ESM5 Sell 3 5948.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:55:01.259 SIM:ESM5 Sell 4 5948.75 Passive
2025-06-02T15:55:01.259 SIM:ESM5 Sell 4 5948.75 Passive
2025-06-02T15:55:01.259 SIM:ESM5 Sell 4 5948.75 Passive
2025-06-02T15:55:01.259 SIM:ESM5 Sell 7 5948.75 Passive
2025-06-02T15:54:59.314 SIM:ESM5 Sell 3 5948.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:54:55.267 SIM:ESM5 Sell 4 5948.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:54:48.812 SIM:ESM5 Sell 5 5948.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:54:58.975 SIM:ESM5 Sell 4 5948.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:54:57.083 SIM:ESM5 Sell 4 5948.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:54:50.456 SIM:ESM5 Sell 3 5948.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:54:49.632 SIM:ESM5 Sell 4 5948.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:54:47.163 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5948.75 Aggressive

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Buy
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
0.1250
Slippage Sweep
-0.2100
Arrival Price
5,948.8750
Average Total
5,949.0000
Destination Price
5,948.8750
Sweep to Fill
5,949.2100
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-06-02T15:54:45.212 SIM:ESM5 Buy 6 5949 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:54:41.712 SIM:ESM5 Buy 8 5949 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:54:46.021 SIM:ESM5 Buy 3 5949 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:54:44.139 SIM:ESM5 Buy 3 5949 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:54:43.242 SIM:ESM5 Buy 11 5949 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:54:37.759 SIM:ESM5 Buy 3 5949 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:54:36.757 SIM:ESM5 Buy 3 5949 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:54:46.828 SIM:ESM5 Buy 9 5949 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:54:35.601 SIM:ESM5 Buy 3 5949 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:54:35.328 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5949 Aggressive

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Sell
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
0.1250
Slippage Sweep
-0.0100
Arrival Price
5,949.1250
Average Total
5,949.0000
Destination Price
5,949.1250
Sweep to Fill
5,948.9900
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-06-02T15:54:03.012 SIM:ESM5 Sell 8 5949 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:53:59.393 SIM:ESM5 Sell 3 5949 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:54:02.389 SIM:ESM5 Sell 7 5949 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:54:01.012 SIM:ESM5 Sell 14 5949 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:54:01.012 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5949 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:53:59.964 SIM:ESM5 Sell 2 5949 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:53:59.964 SIM:ESM5 Sell 5 5949 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:53:58.111 SIM:ESM5 Sell 5 5949 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:53:58.111 SIM:ESM5 Sell 4 5949 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:53:57.48 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5949 Aggressive

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Buy
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
0.1250
Slippage Sweep
-0.1750
Arrival Price
5,949.1250
Average Total
5,949.2500
Destination Price
5,949.1250
Sweep to Fill
5,949.4250
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-06-02T15:53:56.7 SIM:ESM5 Buy 10 5949.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:53:55.79 SIM:ESM5 Buy 2 5949.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:53:51.475 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5949.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:53:54.667 SIM:ESM5 Buy 3 5949.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:53:48.834 SIM:ESM5 Buy 2 5949.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:53:48.834 SIM:ESM5 Buy 2 5949.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:53:44.143 SIM:ESM5 Buy 3 5949.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:53:45.414 SIM:ESM5 Buy 2 5949.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:53:44.725 SIM:ESM5 Buy 4 5949.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:53:42.641 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5949.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:53:54.387 SIM:ESM5 Buy 8 5949.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:53:52.671 SIM:ESM5 Buy 11 5949.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:53:41.475 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5949.25 Aggressive

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Sell
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
0.0350
Slippage Sweep
-0.1100
Arrival Price
5,949.1250
Average Total
5,949.0900
Destination Price
5,949.3750
Sweep to Fill
5,948.9800
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-06-02T15:53:10.031 SIM:ESM5 Sell 3 5949 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:53:10.031 SIM:ESM5 Sell 14 5949.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:53:08.76 SIM:ESM5 Sell 4 5949.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:53:04.726 SIM:ESM5 Sell 11 5949 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:53:04.726 SIM:ESM5 Sell 8 5949 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:53:04.726 SIM:ESM5 Sell 9 5949 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:53:04.726 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5949 Aggressive

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Buy
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
-0.1250
Slippage Sweep
-0.3000
Arrival Price
5,949.3750
Average Total
5,949.2500
Destination Price
5,949.1250
Sweep to Fill
5,949.5500
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-06-02T15:53:00.936 SIM:ESM5 Buy 21 5949.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:53:00.664 SIM:ESM5 Buy 4 5949.25 Passive
2025-06-02T15:53:00.664 SIM:ESM5 Buy 3 5949.25 Passive
2025-06-02T15:53:00.664 SIM:ESM5 Buy 3 5949.25 Passive
2025-06-02T15:53:00.664 SIM:ESM5 Buy 2 5949.25 Passive
2025-06-02T15:53:00.664 SIM:ESM5 Buy 6 5949.25 Passive
2025-06-02T15:53:00.664 SIM:ESM5 Buy 5 5949.25 Passive
2025-06-02T15:53:00.663 SIM:ESM5 Buy 5 5949.25 Passive
2025-06-02T15:53:00.663 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5949.25 Passive

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Sell
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
0.1250
Slippage Sweep
-0.1050
Arrival Price
5,949.3750
Average Total
5,949.2500
Destination Price
5,949.1250
Sweep to Fill
5,949.1450
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-06-02T15:52:20.633 SIM:ESM5 Sell 3 5949.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:52:20.633 SIM:ESM5 Sell 6 5949.25 Passive
2025-06-02T15:52:20.633 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5949.25 Passive
2025-06-02T15:52:20.633 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5949.25 Passive
2025-06-02T15:52:10.012 SIM:ESM5 Sell 9 5949.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:52:10.012 SIM:ESM5 Sell 11 5949.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:52:05.636 SIM:ESM5 Sell 5 5949.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:52:05.467 SIM:ESM5 Sell 2 5949.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:52:05.467 SIM:ESM5 Sell 3 5949.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:52:08.712 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5949.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:52:07.989 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5949.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:52:07.507 SIM:ESM5 Sell 2 5949.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:52:02.612 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5949.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:52:02.212 SIM:ESM5 Sell 3 5949.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:52:00.653 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5949.25 Aggressive

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Buy
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
0.1250
Slippage Sweep
-0.0900
Arrival Price
5,949.3750
Average Total
5,949.5000
Destination Price
5,949.3750
Sweep to Fill
5,949.5900
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-06-02T15:51:55.828 SIM:ESM5 Buy 5 5949.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:51:49.427 SIM:ESM5 Buy 8 5949.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:51:48.475 SIM:ESM5 Buy 4 5949.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:51:58.971 SIM:ESM5 Buy 2 5949.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:51:56.475 SIM:ESM5 Buy 6 5949.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:51:52.512 SIM:ESM5 Buy 4 5949.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:51:46.475 SIM:ESM5 Buy 5 5949.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:51:45.475 SIM:ESM5 Buy 4 5949.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:52:00.113 SIM:ESM5 Buy 5 5949.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:51:54.812 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5949.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:51:53.64 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5949.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:51:51.913 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5949.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:51:47.776 SIM:ESM5 Buy 3 5949.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:51:44.586 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5949.5 Aggressive

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Sell
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
0.2000
Slippage Sweep
-0.0100
Arrival Price
5,949.8750
Average Total
5,949.6750
Destination Price
5,949.6250
Sweep to Fill
5,949.6650
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-06-02T15:50:59.414 SIM:ESM5 Sell 7 5949.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:51:08.012 SIM:ESM5 Sell 6 5949.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:51:05.456 SIM:ESM5 Sell 4 5949.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:51:03.95 SIM:ESM5 Sell 5 5949.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:50:44.812 SIM:ESM5 Sell 3 5949.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:50:49.758 SIM:ESM5 Sell 3 5949.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:50:49.758 SIM:ESM5 Sell 2 5949.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:50:49.758 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5949.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:50:44.225 SIM:ESM5 Sell 3 5949.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:50:40.612 SIM:ESM5 Sell 3 5949.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:50:46.857 SIM:ESM5 Sell 3 5949.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:50:46.426 SIM:ESM5 Sell 5 5949.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:50:46.426 SIM:ESM5 Sell 4 5949.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:50:39.512 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5949.75 Aggressive

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Buy
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
-0.0400
Slippage Sweep
-0.1650
Arrival Price
5,950.1250
Average Total
5,950.0850
Destination Price
5,949.8750
Sweep to Fill
5,950.2500
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-06-02T15:50:39.013 SIM:ESM5 Buy 6 5950.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:50:39.013 SIM:ESM5 Buy 23 5950 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:50:38.717 SIM:ESM5 Buy 10 5950.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:50:38.717 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5950.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:50:38.717 SIM:ESM5 Buy 3 5950 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:50:38.717 SIM:ESM5 Buy 3 5950 Passive
2025-06-02T15:50:38.717 SIM:ESM5 Buy 2 5950 Passive
2025-06-02T15:50:38.717 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5950 Passive
2025-06-02T15:50:38.717 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5950 Passive

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Sell
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
-0.1850
Slippage Sweep
-0.3650
Arrival Price
5,949.3750
Average Total
5,949.5600
Destination Price
5,949.8750
Sweep to Fill
5,949.1950
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-06-02T15:50:05.686 SIM:ESM5 Sell 23 5949.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:50:05.685 SIM:ESM5 Sell 13 5949.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:50:04.667 SIM:ESM5 Sell 4 5949.5 Passive
2025-06-02T15:50:04.667 SIM:ESM5 Sell 6 5949.5 Passive
2025-06-02T15:50:04.667 SIM:ESM5 Sell 3 5949.5 Passive
2025-06-02T15:50:03.781 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5949.25 Aggressive

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Buy
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
0.0300
Slippage Sweep
-0.1800
Arrival Price
5,949.8750
Average Total
5,949.9050
Destination Price
5,949.6250
Sweep to Fill
5,950.0850
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-06-02T15:50:02.66 SIM:ESM5 Buy 5 5949.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:50:02.66 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5949.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:50:02.66 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5949.5 Passive
2025-06-02T15:50:01.365 SIM:ESM5 Buy 18 5950 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:50:01.365 SIM:ESM5 Buy 15 5949.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:49:56.844 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5950 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:49:58.744 SIM:ESM5 Buy 2 5950.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:49:58.441 SIM:ESM5 Buy 3 5950.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:49:55.623 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5950 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:49:55.623 SIM:ESM5 Buy 3 5950 Aggressive