Arrival Price AI Analytics

CQG AI Algos


The Arrival Price Algorithm is driven by short-term realized volatility and drift signals as well as market-implied cost of liquidity to execute within a risk-optimized time horizon using trader-defined slippage expectations. Arrival Price is benchmarked against mid-market and sweep to fill (market order) metrics.

"Liquidity Cost, Volatility, and Drift" are the quantities used by the algorithm to compute a theoretically optimal Equilibrium Trading Horizon (White Paper). "Seconds spent" reflects the practical application of this horizon over simulated dynamic market conditions. A "fill stream" is also included to demonstrate the effects of the Market By Order Impact Model, which helps size order slices in a manner consistent with price-level population.

The graphs below illuminate the effects of these indicators on optimal execution horizon and therefore, performance results of hypothetical Arrival Price orders.


Impact Model: MBO
Payup Model: PayupAI
Liquidity Cost:
Implicit cost of liquidity per lot
Volatility:
Normal volatility in dollar terms

 

Drift:
Short-term directional drift
Seconds Spent:
Seconds spent in simulated execution

 

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Sell
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
0.0000
Slippage Sweep
-0.2650
Arrival Price
5,951.0000
Average Total
5,951.0000
Destination Price
5,951.1250
Sweep to Fill
5,950.7350
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-06-02T15:31:49.679 SIM:ESM5 Sell 6 5951 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:31:44.322 SIM:ESM5 Sell 6 5951 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:31:41.412 SIM:ESM5 Sell 9 5951 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:31:41.203 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5951 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:31:42.716 SIM:ESM5 Sell 8 5951 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:31:35.064 SIM:ESM5 Sell 2 5951 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:31:48.467 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5951 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:31:39.725 SIM:ESM5 Sell 5 5951 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:31:38.337 SIM:ESM5 Sell 2 5951 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:31:37.386 SIM:ESM5 Sell 3 5951 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:31:36.606 SIM:ESM5 Sell 3 5951 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:31:35.616 SIM:ESM5 Sell 3 5951 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:31:33.228 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5951 Aggressive

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Buy
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
0.0450
Slippage Sweep
-0.0800
Arrival Price
5,951.1250
Average Total
5,951.1700
Destination Price
5,951.1250
Sweep to Fill
5,951.2500
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-06-02T15:31:32.726 SIM:ESM5 Buy 5 5951.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:31:27.861 SIM:ESM5 Buy 7 5951.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:31:19.431 SIM:ESM5 Buy 9 5951.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:31:19.431 SIM:ESM5 Buy 8 5951.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:31:19.431 SIM:ESM5 Buy 5 5951.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:31:19.431 SIM:ESM5 Buy 3 5951 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:31:19.431 SIM:ESM5 Buy 2 5951 Passive
2025-06-02T15:31:19.431 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5951 Passive
2025-06-02T15:31:19.431 SIM:ESM5 Buy 3 5951 Passive
2025-06-02T15:31:19.431 SIM:ESM5 Buy 3 5951 Passive
2025-06-02T15:31:19.431 SIM:ESM5 Buy 2 5951 Passive
2025-06-02T15:31:19.431 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5951 Passive
2025-06-02T15:31:19.431 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5951 Passive

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Sell
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
0.3050
Slippage Sweep
0.1600
Arrival Price
5,952.1250
Average Total
5,951.8200
Destination Price
5,951.7500
Sweep to Fill
5,951.9800
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-06-02T15:30:44.464 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5951.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:30:20.229 SIM:ESM5 Sell 2 5951.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:30:18.24 SIM:ESM5 Sell 3 5951.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:30:18.24 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5952 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:30:15.127 SIM:ESM5 Sell 2 5951.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:30:15.125 SIM:ESM5 Sell 2 5952 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:30:15.124 SIM:ESM5 Sell 4 5952 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:30:41.579 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5951.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:30:41.579 SIM:ESM5 Sell 2 5951.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:30:39.364 SIM:ESM5 Sell 2 5951.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:30:38.684 SIM:ESM5 Sell 4 5951.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:30:37.438 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5951.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:30:17.134 SIM:ESM5 Sell 11 5951.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:30:15.015 SIM:ESM5 Sell 7 5952 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:30:21.523 SIM:ESM5 Sell 2 5951.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:30:21.518 SIM:ESM5 Sell 4 5951.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:30:08.122 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5952 Aggressive

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Buy
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
0.2150
Slippage Sweep
-0.0300
Arrival Price
5,952.3750
Average Total
5,952.5900
Destination Price
5,952.3750
Sweep to Fill
5,952.6200
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-06-02T15:30:06.02 SIM:ESM5 Buy 3 5952.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:30:05.422 SIM:ESM5 Buy 2 5952.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:30:00.809 SIM:ESM5 Buy 5 5952.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:30:07.58 SIM:ESM5 Buy 4 5952.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:30:07.58 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5952.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:30:07.58 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5952.25 Passive
2025-06-02T15:30:07.579 SIM:ESM5 Buy 6 5952.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:30:02.718 SIM:ESM5 Buy 12 5952.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:29:59.78 SIM:ESM5 Buy 2 5952.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:29:58.725 SIM:ESM5 Buy 2 5952.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:29:58.725 SIM:ESM5 Buy 5 5952.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:29:57.738 SIM:ESM5 Buy 3 5952.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:29:57.02 SIM:ESM5 Buy 3 5952.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:29:55.735 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5952.5 Aggressive

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Sell
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
0.3500
Slippage Sweep
0.0850
Arrival Price
5,952.1250
Average Total
5,951.7750
Destination Price
5,951.8750
Sweep to Fill
5,951.8600
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-06-02T15:29:11.014 SIM:ESM5 Sell 5 5951.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:29:11.014 SIM:ESM5 Sell 5 5951.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:29:11.014 SIM:ESM5 Sell 3 5951.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:29:11.013 SIM:ESM5 Sell 2 5951.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:29:24.902 SIM:ESM5 Sell 2 5951.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:29:24.902 SIM:ESM5 Sell 10 5951.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:29:24.902 SIM:ESM5 Sell 3 5951.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:29:24.902 SIM:ESM5 Sell 2 5952 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:29:24.902 SIM:ESM5 Sell 2 5952 Passive
2025-06-02T15:29:05.053 SIM:ESM5 Sell 7 5951.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:29:01.982 SIM:ESM5 Sell 6 5951.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:29:04.012 SIM:ESM5 Sell 2 5951.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:29:00.982 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5952 Aggressive

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Buy
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
-0.0900
Slippage Sweep
-0.3350
Arrival Price
5,952.3750
Average Total
5,952.2850
Destination Price
5,952.1250
Sweep to Fill
5,952.6200
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-06-02T15:28:58.822 SIM:ESM5 Buy 5 5952.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:28:58.005 SIM:ESM5 Buy 3 5952.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:29:00.477 SIM:ESM5 Buy 4 5952.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:28:56.483 SIM:ESM5 Buy 5 5952.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:28:59.631 SIM:ESM5 Buy 8 5952.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:28:54.554 SIM:ESM5 Buy 3 5952.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:28:54.554 SIM:ESM5 Buy 18 5952.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:28:53.512 SIM:ESM5 Buy 3 5952.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:28:52.45 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5952.5 Aggressive

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Sell
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
0.1300
Slippage Sweep
-0.0700
Arrival Price
5,952.3750
Average Total
5,952.2450
Destination Price
5,952.1250
Sweep to Fill
5,952.1750
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-06-02T15:28:17.11 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5952.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:28:21.958 SIM:ESM5 Sell 7 5952 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:28:10.622 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5952.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:28:04.572 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5952.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:28:11.869 SIM:ESM5 Sell 12 5952.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:28:11.869 SIM:ESM5 Sell 10 5952.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:28:11.869 SIM:ESM5 Sell 7 5952.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:28:11.869 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5952.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:28:11.869 SIM:ESM5 Sell 2 5952.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:28:11.869 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5952.5 Passive
2025-06-02T15:28:11.869 SIM:ESM5 Sell 4 5952.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:28:11.869 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5952.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:28:11.868 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5952.5 Passive
2025-06-02T15:28:02.112 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5952.25 Aggressive

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Buy
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
0.0450
Slippage Sweep
-0.2550
Arrival Price
5,952.6250
Average Total
5,952.6700
Destination Price
5,952.3750
Sweep to Fill
5,952.9250
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-06-02T15:28:00.958 SIM:ESM5 Buy 12 5952.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:28:00.958 SIM:ESM5 Buy 16 5952.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:27:58.963 SIM:ESM5 Buy 4 5952.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:27:58.963 SIM:ESM5 Buy 2 5952.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:27:58.422 SIM:ESM5 Buy 5 5952.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:27:55.211 SIM:ESM5 Buy 5 5952.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:27:55.211 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5952.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:27:54.013 SIM:ESM5 Buy 2 5952.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:27:53.002 SIM:ESM5 Buy 2 5952.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:27:51.955 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5952.75 Aggressive

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Sell
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
0.3350
Slippage Sweep
0.1200
Arrival Price
5,952.8750
Average Total
5,952.5400
Destination Price
5,952.6250
Sweep to Fill
5,952.6600
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-06-02T15:27:21.402 SIM:ESM5 Sell 3 5952.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:27:15.212 SIM:ESM5 Sell 8 5952.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:27:11.312 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5952.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:27:10.731 SIM:ESM5 Sell 2 5952.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:27:10.731 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5952.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:27:09.092 SIM:ESM5 Sell 5 5952.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:27:07.39 SIM:ESM5 Sell 2 5952.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:27:06.215 SIM:ESM5 Sell 4 5952.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:27:06.215 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5952.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:27:05.712 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5952.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:27:05.711 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5952.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:27:03.378 SIM:ESM5 Sell 2 5952.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:27:00.475 SIM:ESM5 Sell 8 5952.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:26:55.278 SIM:ESM5 Sell 3 5952.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:27:04.188 SIM:ESM5 Sell 2 5952.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:27:02.527 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5952.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:26:56.632 SIM:ESM5 Sell 4 5952.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:26:54.04 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5952.75 Aggressive

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Buy
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
0.0350
Slippage Sweep
-0.2950
Arrival Price
5,953.1250
Average Total
5,953.1600
Destination Price
5,952.8750
Sweep to Fill
5,953.4550
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-06-02T15:26:53.645 SIM:ESM5 Buy 16 5953.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:26:53.645 SIM:ESM5 Buy 18 5953 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:26:50.519 SIM:ESM5 Buy 2 5953.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:26:49.565 SIM:ESM5 Buy 3 5953.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:26:49.565 SIM:ESM5 Buy 2 5953.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:26:49.565 SIM:ESM5 Buy 3 5953.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:26:46.441 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5953.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:26:52.613 SIM:ESM5 Buy 2 5953.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:26:51.53 SIM:ESM5 Buy 2 5953.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:26:46.017 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5953.25 Aggressive

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Sell
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
0.0550
Slippage Sweep
-0.1650
Arrival Price
5,952.8750
Average Total
5,952.8200
Destination Price
5,953.1250
Sweep to Fill
5,952.6550
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-06-02T15:26:14.531 SIM:ESM5 Sell 12 5953 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:26:13.976 SIM:ESM5 Sell 6 5952.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:26:13.976 SIM:ESM5 Sell 9 5952.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:26:13.976 SIM:ESM5 Sell 3 5952.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:26:13.976 SIM:ESM5 Sell 4 5952.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:26:13.976 SIM:ESM5 Sell 3 5952.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:26:13.976 SIM:ESM5 Sell 4 5952.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:26:13.976 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5953 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:26:13.976 SIM:ESM5 Sell 3 5952.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:26:13.976 SIM:ESM5 Sell 4 5952.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:26:13.976 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5953 Aggressive

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Buy
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
0.0150
Slippage Sweep
-0.1750
Arrival Price
5,953.1250
Average Total
5,953.1400
Destination Price
5,952.8750
Sweep to Fill
5,953.3150
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-06-02T15:26:04.875 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5953 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:26:03.112 SIM:ESM5 Buy 12 5953.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:26:03.112 SIM:ESM5 Buy 12 5953 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:26:00.078 SIM:ESM5 Buy 5 5953.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:26:00.078 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5953 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:26:00.078 SIM:ESM5 Buy 3 5953.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:26:00.077 SIM:ESM5 Buy 8 5953.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:26:00.077 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5953 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:25:54.969 SIM:ESM5 Buy 6 5953 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:25:54.774 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5953 Passive

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Sell
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
0.2450
Slippage Sweep
0.1050
Arrival Price
5,953.3750
Average Total
5,953.1300
Destination Price
5,952.8750
Sweep to Fill
5,953.2350
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-06-02T15:25:17.914 SIM:ESM5 Sell 3 5953 Passive
2025-06-02T15:25:17.914 SIM:ESM5 Sell 3 5953 Passive
2025-06-02T15:25:17.914 SIM:ESM5 Sell 2 5953 Passive
2025-06-02T15:25:17.914 SIM:ESM5 Sell 2 5953 Passive
2025-06-02T15:25:13.059 SIM:ESM5 Sell 14 5953 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:25:05.422 SIM:ESM5 Sell 6 5953.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:25:05.422 SIM:ESM5 Sell 6 5953.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:25:04.46 SIM:ESM5 Sell 5 5953.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:25:01.515 SIM:ESM5 Sell 6 5953.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:25:01.515 SIM:ESM5 Sell 2 5953.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:25:00.148 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5953.25 Aggressive

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Buy
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
0.0150
Slippage Sweep
-0.2650
Arrival Price
5,953.6250
Average Total
5,953.6400
Destination Price
5,953.3750
Sweep to Fill
5,953.9050
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-06-02T15:24:56.134 SIM:ESM5 Buy 5 5953.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:24:53.946 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5953.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:24:59.877 SIM:ESM5 Buy 22 5953.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:24:59.226 SIM:ESM5 Buy 13 5953.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:24:54.914 SIM:ESM5 Buy 8 5953.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:24:52.813 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5953.75 Aggressive

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Sell
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
-0.0850
Slippage Sweep
-0.3150
Arrival Price
5,953.1250
Average Total
5,953.2100
Destination Price
5,953.3750
Sweep to Fill
5,952.8950
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-06-02T15:24:22.012 SIM:ESM5 Sell 20 5953.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:24:22.012 SIM:ESM5 Sell 22 5953.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:24:21.069 SIM:ESM5 Sell 2 5953 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:24:21.069 SIM:ESM5 Sell 2 5953 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:24:18.016 SIM:ESM5 Sell 2 5953 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:24:18.016 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5953 Aggressive
2025-06-02T15:24:17.412 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5953 Aggressive