Arrival Price AI Analytics

CQG AI Algos


The Arrival Price Algorithm is driven by short-term realized volatility and drift signals as well as market-implied cost of liquidity to execute within a risk-optimized time horizon using trader-defined slippage expectations. Arrival Price is benchmarked against mid-market and sweep to fill (market order) metrics.

"Liquidity Cost, Volatility, and Drift" are the quantities used by the algorithm to compute a theoretically optimal Equilibrium Trading Horizon (White Paper). "Seconds spent" reflects the practical application of this horizon over simulated dynamic market conditions. A "fill stream" is also included to demonstrate the effects of the Market By Order Impact Model, which helps size order slices in a manner consistent with price-level population.

The graphs below illuminate the effects of these indicators on optimal execution horizon and therefore, performance results of hypothetical Arrival Price orders.


Impact Model: MBO
Payup Model: PayupAI
Liquidity Cost:
Implicit cost of liquidity per lot
Volatility:
Normal volatility in dollar terms

 

Drift:
Short-term directional drift
Seconds Spent:
Seconds spent in simulated execution

 

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Buy
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
0.9450
Slippage Sweep
0.3350
Arrival Price
5,331.1250
Average Total
5,332.0700
Destination Price
5,331.8750
Sweep to Fill
5,331.7350
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-04-17T12:17:04.223 SIM:ESM5 Buy 5 5331.75 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:17:04.223 SIM:ESM5 Buy 2 5332 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:17:04.223 SIM:ESM5 Buy 3 5331.75 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:17:09.282 SIM:ESM5 Buy 2 5331.5 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:17:09.282 SIM:ESM5 Buy 6 5331.75 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:17:10.319 SIM:ESM5 Buy 3 5331.5 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:17:11.325 SIM:ESM5 Buy 9 5332.25 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:17:11.325 SIM:ESM5 Buy 3 5332.25 Passive
2025-04-17T12:17:12.323 SIM:ESM5 Buy 6 5332.5 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:17:12.324 SIM:ESM5 Buy 3 5332.75 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:17:13.353 SIM:ESM5 Buy 3 5332 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:17:13.353 SIM:ESM5 Buy 5 5332.25 Aggressive

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Sell
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
-0.5850
Slippage Sweep
-1.1150
Arrival Price
5,332.1250
Average Total
5,332.7100
Destination Price
5,333.3750
Sweep to Fill
5,331.5950
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-04-17T12:16:18.414 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5332 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:16:19.413 SIM:ESM5 Sell 3 5332.25 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:16:20.525 SIM:ESM5 Sell 2 5332.25 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:16:21.354 SIM:ESM5 Sell 8 5332.5 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:16:21.354 SIM:ESM5 Sell 9 5332.25 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:16:22.363 SIM:ESM5 Sell 4 5333.25 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:16:22.363 SIM:ESM5 Sell 8 5333 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:16:23.379 SIM:ESM5 Sell 9 5333 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:16:24.412 SIM:ESM5 Sell 6 5333 Aggressive

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Buy
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
-1.8450
Slippage Sweep
-2.3200
Arrival Price
5,334.8750
Average Total
5,333.0300
Destination Price
5,332.6250
Sweep to Fill
5,335.3500
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-04-17T12:16:05.83 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5335 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:16:06.776 SIM:ESM5 Buy 10 5333.75 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:16:06.776 SIM:ESM5 Buy 4 5333.75 Passive
2025-04-17T12:16:07.778 SIM:ESM5 Buy 9 5332.75 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:16:07.778 SIM:ESM5 Buy 4 5332.75 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:16:08.788 SIM:ESM5 Buy 2 5332.5 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:16:08.788 SIM:ESM5 Buy 6 5332.75 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:16:08.789 SIM:ESM5 Buy 2 5332.5 Passive
2025-04-17T12:16:09.816 SIM:ESM5 Buy 2 5332.5 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:16:09.817 SIM:ESM5 Buy 3 5332.5 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:16:10.809 SIM:ESM5 Buy 3 5332.75 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:16:10.809 SIM:ESM5 Buy 4 5332.75 Aggressive

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Sell
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
-0.4000
Slippage Sweep
-0.9550
Arrival Price
5,334.8750
Average Total
5,335.2750
Destination Price
5,336.6250
Sweep to Fill
5,334.3200
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-04-17T12:15:23.475 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5334.5 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:15:24.481 SIM:ESM5 Sell 3 5334 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:15:24.481 SIM:ESM5 Sell 4 5333.75 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:15:25.502 SIM:ESM5 Sell 9 5334 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:15:25.502 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5334 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:15:25.502 SIM:ESM5 Sell 3 5334 Passive
2025-04-17T12:15:27.502 SIM:ESM5 Sell 4 5336.25 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:15:27.502 SIM:ESM5 Sell 6 5336 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:15:28.551 SIM:ESM5 Sell 3 5336.25 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:15:28.551 SIM:ESM5 Sell 7 5336 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:15:29.583 SIM:ESM5 Sell 9 5336.5 Aggressive

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Buy
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
-0.5100
Slippage Sweep
-0.9700
Arrival Price
5,334.8750
Average Total
5,334.3650
Destination Price
5,334.3750
Sweep to Fill
5,335.3350
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-04-17T12:15:03.815 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5334.5 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:15:04.854 SIM:ESM5 Buy 5 5334.25 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:15:04.854 SIM:ESM5 Buy 6 5334.5 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:15:05.865 SIM:ESM5 Buy 12 5334.25 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:15:05.865 SIM:ESM5 Buy 4 5334.25 Passive
2025-04-17T12:15:06.867 SIM:ESM5 Buy 9 5334.25 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:15:06.867 SIM:ESM5 Buy 2 5334.5 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:15:06.867 SIM:ESM5 Buy 3 5334.25 Passive
2025-04-17T12:15:07.877 SIM:ESM5 Buy 2 5334.5 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:15:07.877 SIM:ESM5 Buy 6 5334.75 Aggressive

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Sell
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
1.0650
Slippage Sweep
0.5000
Arrival Price
5,336.6250
Average Total
5,335.5600
Destination Price
5,335.8750
Sweep to Fill
5,336.0600
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-04-17T12:14:17.713 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5336.5 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:14:18.706 SIM:ESM5 Sell 2 5336.5 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:14:19.688 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5336.5 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:14:20.659 SIM:ESM5 Sell 6 5336.25 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:14:20.659 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5336 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:14:21.678 SIM:ESM5 Sell 10 5335.25 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:14:21.678 SIM:ESM5 Sell 2 5335.25 Passive
2025-04-17T12:14:22.855 SIM:ESM5 Sell 8 5335.25 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:14:22.855 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5335.25 Passive
2025-04-17T12:14:23.683 SIM:ESM5 Sell 11 5335.5 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:14:23.683 SIM:ESM5 Sell 5 5335.25 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:14:24.744 SIM:ESM5 Sell 2 5335.75 Aggressive

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Buy
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
-0.1900
Slippage Sweep
-0.6550
Arrival Price
5,337.6250
Average Total
5,337.4350
Destination Price
5,337.3750
Sweep to Fill
5,338.0900
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-04-17T12:13:53.712 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5337.75 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:13:54.69 SIM:ESM5 Buy 2 5337.75 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:13:55.705 SIM:ESM5 Buy 2 5337.5 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:13:56.772 SIM:ESM5 Buy 2 5337.5 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:13:57.743 SIM:ESM5 Buy 4 5337.5 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:13:57.743 SIM:ESM5 Buy 3 5337.5 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:14:00.75 SIM:ESM5 Buy 8 5337.5 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:14:00.75 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5337.5 Passive
2025-04-17T12:14:01.751 SIM:ESM5 Buy 8 5337.25 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:14:02.817 SIM:ESM5 Buy 8 5337.25 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:14:02.817 SIM:ESM5 Buy 2 5337.5 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:14:06.798 SIM:ESM5 Buy 4 5337.5 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:14:06.798 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5337.5 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:14:07.819 SIM:ESM5 Buy 4 5337.5 Aggressive

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Buy
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
-1.0200
Slippage Sweep
-1.5250
Arrival Price
5,339.2500
Average Total
5,338.2300
Destination Price
5,337.8750
Sweep to Fill
5,339.7550
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-04-17T12:12:35.213 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5339.5 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:12:36.159 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5339.25 Passive
2025-04-17T12:12:36.16 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5339.25 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:12:36.16 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5339.5 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:12:38.168 SIM:ESM5 Buy 2 5339.5 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:12:39.203 SIM:ESM5 Buy 9 5338.75 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:12:39.203 SIM:ESM5 Buy 4 5338.75 Passive
2025-04-17T12:12:40.189 SIM:ESM5 Buy 4 5337.5 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:12:40.189 SIM:ESM5 Buy 9 5337.75 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:12:41.183 SIM:ESM5 Buy 10 5337.75 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:12:41.183 SIM:ESM5 Buy 5 5338 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:12:42.212 SIM:ESM5 Buy 3 5338 Aggressive

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Sell
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
0.5800
Slippage Sweep
0.0500
Arrival Price
5,343.0000
Average Total
5,342.4200
Destination Price
5,341.6250
Sweep to Fill
5,342.4700
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-04-17T12:10:53.883 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5343 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:10:54.857 SIM:ESM5 Sell 7 5343.5 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:10:55.855 SIM:ESM5 Sell 4 5343.5 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:10:55.855 SIM:ESM5 Sell 4 5343.25 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:10:58.878 SIM:ESM5 Sell 6 5342.25 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:10:58.878 SIM:ESM5 Sell 3 5342 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:10:59.912 SIM:ESM5 Sell 8 5342.25 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:10:59.912 SIM:ESM5 Sell 3 5342.25 Passive
2025-04-17T12:11:00.917 SIM:ESM5 Sell 5 5341.75 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:11:00.917 SIM:ESM5 Sell 7 5341.5 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:11:01.942 SIM:ESM5 Sell 2 5341.5 Aggressive

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Sell
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
0.9500
Slippage Sweep
0.4450
Arrival Price
5,343.8750
Average Total
5,342.9250
Destination Price
5,342.3750
Sweep to Fill
5,343.3700
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-04-17T12:09:53.68 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5344 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:09:54.682 SIM:ESM5 Sell 6 5344.25 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:09:54.682 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5344 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:09:58.758 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5343.5 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:09:58.758 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5343.5 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:09:59.755 SIM:ESM5 Sell 6 5343.5 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:09:59.755 SIM:ESM5 Sell 6 5343.5 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:10:00.709 SIM:ESM5 Sell 3 5344 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:10:00.709 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5344 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:10:04.769 SIM:ESM5 Sell 7 5342 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:10:04.769 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5341.75 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:10:05.775 SIM:ESM5 Sell 2 5342.25 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:10:05.775 SIM:ESM5 Sell 12 5342 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:10:05.775 SIM:ESM5 Sell 2 5341.75 Aggressive

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Buy
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
-0.1350
Slippage Sweep
-0.5850
Arrival Price
5,345.3750
Average Total
5,345.2400
Destination Price
5,344.6250
Sweep to Fill
5,345.8250
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-04-17T12:09:39.612 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5345.5 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:09:40.598 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5345.5 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:09:41.592 SIM:ESM5 Buy 14 5346 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:09:41.592 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5345.75 Passive
2025-04-17T12:09:45.658 SIM:ESM5 Buy 7 5344.75 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:09:45.658 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5344.75 Passive
2025-04-17T12:09:46.782 SIM:ESM5 Buy 6 5345 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:09:46.782 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5345.25 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:09:47.699 SIM:ESM5 Buy 4 5344.75 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:09:47.7 SIM:ESM5 Buy 8 5345 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:09:48.685 SIM:ESM5 Buy 4 5344.75 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:09:48.685 SIM:ESM5 Buy 2 5345 Aggressive

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Sell
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
-1.0200
Slippage Sweep
-1.6300
Arrival Price
5,343.1250
Average Total
5,344.1450
Destination Price
5,344.7500
Sweep to Fill
5,342.5150
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-04-17T12:08:51.175 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5342.75 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:08:52.117 SIM:ESM5 Sell 2 5343.25 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:08:53.082 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5342.75 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:08:53.082 SIM:ESM5 Sell 4 5342.75 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:08:55.099 SIM:ESM5 Sell 12 5344.25 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:08:55.1 SIM:ESM5 Sell 5 5344.25 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:08:56.115 SIM:ESM5 Sell 11 5344.5 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:08:56.115 SIM:ESM5 Sell 2 5344.25 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:08:56.168 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5344.5 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:08:57.134 SIM:ESM5 Sell 11 5344.5 Aggressive

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Buy
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
-0.5950
Slippage Sweep
-1.1200
Arrival Price
5,342.5000
Average Total
5,341.9050
Destination Price
5,341.5000
Sweep to Fill
5,343.0250
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-04-17T12:08:22.677 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5342.5 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:08:23.71 SIM:ESM5 Buy 3 5342.75 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:08:24.686 SIM:ESM5 Buy 9 5341.75 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:08:24.76 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5341.75 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:08:25.692 SIM:ESM5 Buy 10 5341.75 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:08:25.692 SIM:ESM5 Buy 4 5341.75 Passive
2025-04-17T12:08:26.705 SIM:ESM5 Buy 3 5342 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:08:26.705 SIM:ESM5 Buy 6 5342.25 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:08:26.705 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5342 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:08:27.722 SIM:ESM5 Buy 5 5341.75 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:08:28.027 SIM:ESM5 Buy 2 5341.75 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:08:31.774 SIM:ESM5 Buy 5 5341.75 Aggressive

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Sell
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
0.5150
Slippage Sweep
-0.0300
Arrival Price
5,342.3750
Average Total
5,341.8600
Destination Price
5,341.8750
Sweep to Fill
5,341.8300
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-04-17T12:07:35.296 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5342.25 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:07:36.15 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5342.25 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:07:37.181 SIM:ESM5 Sell 2 5342.25 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:07:37.181 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5342.25 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:07:38.21 SIM:ESM5 Sell 6 5342.5 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:07:41.213 SIM:ESM5 Sell 8 5341.75 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:07:41.213 SIM:ESM5 Sell 3 5341.75 Passive
2025-04-17T12:07:42.288 SIM:ESM5 Sell 10 5341.75 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:07:42.288 SIM:ESM5 Sell 5 5341.75 Passive
2025-04-17T12:07:44.289 SIM:ESM5 Sell 4 5341.75 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:07:44.289 SIM:ESM5 Sell 5 5341.5 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:07:45.268 SIM:ESM5 Sell 3 5341.75 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:07:45.268 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5341.5 Aggressive

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Sell
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
1.2450
Slippage Sweep
0.7150
Arrival Price
5,341.3750
Average Total
5,340.1300
Destination Price
5,339.8750
Sweep to Fill
5,340.8450
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-04-17T12:06:23.202 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5341 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:06:24.302 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5341 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:06:25.232 SIM:ESM5 Sell 11 5340.25 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:06:25.232 SIM:ESM5 Sell 3 5340 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:06:26.243 SIM:ESM5 Sell 10 5340.5 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:06:26.243 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5340.75 Passive
2025-04-17T12:06:26.243 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5340.75 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:06:26.243 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5340.5 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:06:27.26 SIM:ESM5 Sell 7 5339.75 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:06:27.26 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5339.75 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:06:28.277 SIM:ESM5 Sell 10 5339.75 Aggressive
2025-04-17T12:06:28.278 SIM:ESM5 Sell 3 5339.75 Aggressive