Arrival Price AI Analytics

CQG AI Algos


The Arrival Price Algorithm is driven by short-term realized volatility and drift signals as well as market-implied cost of liquidity to execute within a risk-optimized time horizon using trader-defined slippage expectations. Arrival Price is benchmarked against mid-market and sweep to fill (market order) metrics.

"Liquidity Cost, Volatility, and Drift" are the quantities used by the algorithm to compute a theoretically optimal Equilibrium Trading Horizon (White Paper). "Seconds spent" reflects the practical application of this horizon over simulated dynamic market conditions. A "fill stream" is also included to demonstrate the effects of the Market By Order Impact Model, which helps size order slices in a manner consistent with price-level population.

The graphs below illuminate the effects of these indicators on optimal execution horizon and therefore, performance results of hypothetical Arrival Price orders.


Impact Model: MBO
Payup Model: PayupAI
Liquidity Cost:
Implicit cost of liquidity per lot
Volatility:
Normal volatility in dollar terms

 

Drift:
Short-term directional drift
Seconds Spent:
Seconds spent in simulated execution

 

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Sell
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
-0.1250
Slippage Sweep
-0.4100
Arrival Price
5,913.6250
Average Total
5,913.7500
Destination Price
5,913.8750
Sweep to Fill
5,913.3400
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-06-02T11:51:03.212 SIM:ESM5 Sell 13 5913.75 Passive
2025-06-02T11:51:04.986 SIM:ESM5 Sell 2 5913.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T11:51:03.212 SIM:ESM5 Sell 32 5913.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T11:51:02.152 SIM:ESM5 Sell 3 5913.75 Aggressive

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Buy
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
0.4800
Slippage Sweep
0.2250
Arrival Price
5,913.8750
Average Total
5,914.3550
Destination Price
5,913.6250
Sweep to Fill
5,914.1300
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-06-02T11:50:42.603 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5914.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T11:50:42.603 SIM:ESM5 Buy 2 5914.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T11:50:39.457 SIM:ESM5 Buy 4 5914.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T11:50:32.412 SIM:ESM5 Buy 2 5914 Aggressive
2025-06-02T11:50:31.414 SIM:ESM5 Buy 2 5914 Aggressive
2025-06-02T11:51:01.683 SIM:ESM5 Buy 4 5913.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T11:50:56.698 SIM:ESM5 Buy 4 5914.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T11:50:53.712 SIM:ESM5 Buy 3 5914.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T11:50:48.533 SIM:ESM5 Buy 10 5914.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T11:50:37.428 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5914.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T11:50:31.414 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5914 Aggressive
2025-06-02T11:50:30.391 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5914 Aggressive
2025-06-02T11:50:30.391 SIM:ESM5 Buy 2 5914 Aggressive
2025-06-02T11:50:45.52 SIM:ESM5 Buy 7 5914.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T11:50:44.489 SIM:ESM5 Buy 2 5914.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T11:50:33.45 SIM:ESM5 Buy 3 5914 Aggressive
2025-06-02T11:50:29.359 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5914 Aggressive

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Sell
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
1.7300
Slippage Sweep
1.4150
Arrival Price
5,914.6250
Average Total
5,912.8950
Destination Price
5,913.1250
Sweep to Fill
5,914.3100
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-06-02T11:49:53.857 SIM:ESM5 Sell 5 5913 Aggressive
2025-06-02T11:49:50.804 SIM:ESM5 Sell 9 5913 Aggressive
2025-06-02T11:49:44.74 SIM:ESM5 Sell 10 5912.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T11:49:40.72 SIM:ESM5 Sell 4 5912.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T11:49:39.722 SIM:ESM5 Sell 3 5912.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T11:49:58.851 SIM:ESM5 Sell 13 5913 Aggressive
2025-06-02T11:49:49.81 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5913 Passive
2025-06-02T11:49:40.72 SIM:ESM5 Sell 3 5912.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T11:49:37.683 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5914 Aggressive
2025-06-02T11:49:36.677 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5914.25 Aggressive

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Buy
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
-0.0950
Slippage Sweep
-0.3300
Arrival Price
5,914.8750
Average Total
5,914.7800
Destination Price
5,914.6250
Sweep to Fill
5,915.1100
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-06-02T11:49:35.732 SIM:ESM5 Buy 12 5914.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T11:49:35.148 SIM:ESM5 Buy 9 5914.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T11:49:34.741 SIM:ESM5 Buy 22 5914.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T11:49:34.087 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5915 Aggressive
2025-06-02T11:49:34.087 SIM:ESM5 Buy 3 5915 Aggressive
2025-06-02T11:49:32.729 SIM:ESM5 Buy 2 5915 Aggressive
2025-06-02T11:49:31.717 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5914.75 Aggressive

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Sell
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
0.5300
Slippage Sweep
0.3200
Arrival Price
5,914.6250
Average Total
5,914.0950
Destination Price
5,913.8750
Sweep to Fill
5,914.4150
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-06-02T11:49:01.273 SIM:ESM5 Sell 12 5913.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T11:48:57.258 SIM:ESM5 Sell 4 5913.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T11:48:53.214 SIM:ESM5 Sell 5 5914.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T11:48:48.578 SIM:ESM5 Sell 2 5914.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T11:48:45.148 SIM:ESM5 Sell 4 5914.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T11:48:41.252 SIM:ESM5 Sell 2 5914.25 Passive
2025-06-02T11:48:49.06 SIM:ESM5 Sell 6 5914 Aggressive
2025-06-02T11:48:44.167 SIM:ESM5 Sell 2 5914.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T11:48:44.167 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5914.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T11:48:44.167 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5914.5 Passive
2025-06-02T11:48:36.964 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5914.5 Passive
2025-06-02T11:48:36.964 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5914.5 Passive
2025-06-02T11:48:36.964 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5914.5 Passive
2025-06-02T11:48:40.614 SIM:ESM5 Sell 2 5914 Aggressive
2025-06-02T11:48:40.614 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5914.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T11:48:40.614 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5914.25 Passive
2025-06-02T11:48:39.112 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5914.5 Passive
2025-06-02T11:48:39.112 SIM:ESM5 Sell 2 5914.5 Passive
2025-06-02T11:48:36.025 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5914.5 Passive

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Buy
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
-0.3300
Slippage Sweep
-0.6400
Arrival Price
5,915.3750
Average Total
5,915.0450
Destination Price
5,914.6250
Sweep to Fill
5,915.6850
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-06-02T11:48:32.377 SIM:ESM5 Buy 5 5915.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T11:48:31.312 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5915.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T11:48:35.31 SIM:ESM5 Buy 6 5915 Aggressive
2025-06-02T11:48:35.31 SIM:ESM5 Buy 24 5914.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T11:48:34.321 SIM:ESM5 Buy 5 5915.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T11:48:34.321 SIM:ESM5 Buy 8 5915.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T11:48:30.261 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5915.5 Aggressive

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Sell
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
0.0550
Slippage Sweep
-0.0700
Arrival Price
5,915.6250
Average Total
5,915.5700
Destination Price
5,915.8750
Sweep to Fill
5,915.5000
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-06-02T11:47:58.975 SIM:ESM5 Sell 12 5915.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T11:47:57.014 SIM:ESM5 Sell 4 5915.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T11:47:57.014 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5915.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T11:47:57.014 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5915.75 Passive
2025-06-02T11:47:56.205 SIM:ESM5 Sell 14 5915.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T11:47:54.958 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5915.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T11:47:53.989 SIM:ESM5 Sell 6 5915.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T11:47:50.947 SIM:ESM5 Sell 3 5915.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T11:47:58.184 SIM:ESM5 Sell 5 5915.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T11:47:51.993 SIM:ESM5 Sell 2 5915.5 Passive
2025-06-02T11:47:50.874 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5915.5 Aggressive

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Buy
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
0.1200
Slippage Sweep
-0.0650
Arrival Price
5,915.1250
Average Total
5,915.2450
Destination Price
5,915.8750
Sweep to Fill
5,915.3100
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-06-02T11:47:42.013 SIM:ESM5 Buy 7 5915.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T11:47:49.673 SIM:ESM5 Buy 4 5916 Aggressive
2025-06-02T11:47:49.673 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5915.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T11:47:49.673 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5915.75 Passive
2025-06-02T11:47:26.287 SIM:ESM5 Buy 6 5915.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T11:47:26.287 SIM:ESM5 Buy 10 5915 Aggressive
2025-06-02T11:47:25.31 SIM:ESM5 Buy 20 5915 Aggressive
2025-06-02T11:47:24.254 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5915 Aggressive

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Sell
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
-0.0550
Slippage Sweep
-0.3250
Arrival Price
5,913.8750
Average Total
5,913.9300
Destination Price
5,914.1250
Sweep to Fill
5,913.6050
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-06-02T11:46:53.612 SIM:ESM5 Sell 7 5914 Aggressive
2025-06-02T11:46:52.438 SIM:ESM5 Sell 11 5913.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T11:46:52.438 SIM:ESM5 Sell 26 5914 Aggressive
2025-06-02T11:46:52.345 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5914 Passive
2025-06-02T11:46:52.345 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5914 Passive
2025-06-02T11:46:52.345 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5914 Passive
2025-06-02T11:46:50.442 SIM:ESM5 Sell 2 5913.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T11:46:49.69 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5913.75 Aggressive

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Buy
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
0.9200
Slippage Sweep
0.6400
Arrival Price
5,912.8750
Average Total
5,913.7950
Destination Price
5,914.1250
Sweep to Fill
5,913.1550
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-06-02T11:46:48.758 SIM:ESM5 Buy 5 5914.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T11:46:48.758 SIM:ESM5 Buy 2 5914.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T11:46:29.946 SIM:ESM5 Buy 12 5914 Aggressive
2025-06-02T11:46:26.539 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5913 Aggressive
2025-06-02T11:46:24.47 SIM:ESM5 Buy 2 5913 Aggressive
2025-06-02T11:46:44.76 SIM:ESM5 Buy 2 5914 Aggressive
2025-06-02T11:46:44.233 SIM:ESM5 Buy 7 5913.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T11:46:43.712 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5913.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T11:46:40.864 SIM:ESM5 Buy 4 5913.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T11:46:36.682 SIM:ESM5 Buy 5 5913.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T11:46:28.544 SIM:ESM5 Buy 7 5913.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T11:46:25.619 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5913 Aggressive
2025-06-02T11:46:24.055 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5913 Passive

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Sell
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
-0.0850
Slippage Sweep
-0.3300
Arrival Price
5,912.8750
Average Total
5,912.9600
Destination Price
5,913.1250
Sweep to Fill
5,912.6300
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-06-02T11:45:43.013 SIM:ESM5 Sell 3 5912.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T11:45:41.951 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5912.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T11:45:41.951 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5913 Aggressive
2025-06-02T11:45:41.951 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5913 Passive
2025-06-02T11:45:52.829 SIM:ESM5 Sell 20 5913 Aggressive
2025-06-02T11:45:51.753 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5912.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T11:45:51.753 SIM:ESM5 Sell 6 5913 Aggressive
2025-06-02T11:45:43.999 SIM:ESM5 Sell 2 5912.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T11:45:43.999 SIM:ESM5 Sell 14 5913 Aggressive
2025-06-02T11:45:41.05 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5912.75 Aggressive

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Buy
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
-0.0650
Slippage Sweep
-0.3400
Arrival Price
5,913.1250
Average Total
5,913.0600
Destination Price
5,912.8750
Sweep to Fill
5,913.4000
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-06-02T11:45:36.254 SIM:ESM5 Buy 8 5913.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T11:45:40.244 SIM:ESM5 Buy 15 5913 Aggressive
2025-06-02T11:45:39.267 SIM:ESM5 Buy 2 5913 Passive
2025-06-02T11:45:39.266 SIM:ESM5 Buy 22 5913 Aggressive
2025-06-02T11:45:34.081 SIM:ESM5 Buy 2 5913.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T11:45:33.078 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5913 Passive

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Sell
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
0.5100
Slippage Sweep
0.2400
Arrival Price
5,912.8750
Average Total
5,912.3650
Destination Price
5,911.8750
Sweep to Fill
5,912.6050
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-06-02T11:45:02.512 SIM:ESM5 Sell 4 5911.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T11:44:37.617 SIM:ESM5 Sell 10 5912.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T11:44:56.69 SIM:ESM5 Sell 12 5911.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T11:44:47.58 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5911.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T11:44:47.58 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5912 Aggressive
2025-06-02T11:44:36.694 SIM:ESM5 Sell 8 5912.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T11:44:35.526 SIM:ESM5 Sell 3 5912.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T11:44:34.514 SIM:ESM5 Sell 5 5912.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T11:44:32.525 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5912.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T11:44:31.26 SIM:ESM5 Sell 3 5912.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T11:44:29.838 SIM:ESM5 Sell 2 5912.5 Aggressive

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Buy
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
-0.2700
Slippage Sweep
-0.5150
Arrival Price
5,913.3750
Average Total
5,913.1050
Destination Price
5,912.8750
Sweep to Fill
5,913.6200
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-06-02T11:44:28.879 SIM:ESM5 Buy 5 5913 Aggressive
2025-06-02T11:44:27.937 SIM:ESM5 Buy 2 5913.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T11:44:27.937 SIM:ESM5 Buy 24 5913 Aggressive
2025-06-02T11:44:27.03 SIM:ESM5 Buy 2 5913.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T11:44:28.879 SIM:ESM5 Buy 9 5913 Aggressive
2025-06-02T11:44:26.051 SIM:ESM5 Buy 5 5913.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T11:44:24.912 SIM:ESM5 Buy 2 5913.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T11:44:23.862 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5913.25 Passive

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Sell
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
0.2000
Slippage Sweep
-0.0450
Arrival Price
5,913.3750
Average Total
5,913.1750
Destination Price
5,913.3750
Sweep to Fill
5,913.1300
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-06-02T11:43:53.519 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5913.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T11:43:48.514 SIM:ESM5 Sell 2 5913.75 Passive
2025-06-02T11:43:47.928 SIM:ESM5 Sell 4 5913.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T11:43:45.932 SIM:ESM5 Sell 7 5913 Aggressive
2025-06-02T11:43:39.442 SIM:ESM5 Sell 2 5913.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T11:43:36.832 SIM:ESM5 Sell 3 5913 Aggressive
2025-06-02T11:43:34.74 SIM:ESM5 Sell 3 5913.25 Passive
2025-06-02T11:43:48.514 SIM:ESM5 Sell 5 5913.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T11:43:48.514 SIM:ESM5 Sell 2 5913.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T11:43:43.403 SIM:ESM5 Sell 8 5913 Aggressive
2025-06-02T11:43:41.151 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5913.25 Passive
2025-06-02T11:43:32.589 SIM:ESM5 Sell 4 5913 Aggressive
2025-06-02T11:43:31.485 SIM:ESM5 Sell 2 5913 Aggressive
2025-06-02T11:43:38.37 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5913.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T11:43:35.347 SIM:ESM5 Sell 4 5913 Aggressive
2025-06-02T11:43:30.472 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5913.25 Aggressive