Arrival Price AI Analytics

CQG AI Algos


The Arrival Price Algorithm is driven by short-term realized volatility and drift signals as well as market-implied cost of liquidity to execute within a risk-optimized time horizon using trader-defined slippage expectations. Arrival Price is benchmarked against mid-market and sweep to fill (market order) metrics.

"Liquidity Cost, Volatility, and Drift" are the quantities used by the algorithm to compute a theoretically optimal Equilibrium Trading Horizon (White Paper). "Seconds spent" reflects the practical application of this horizon over simulated dynamic market conditions. A "fill stream" is also included to demonstrate the effects of the Market By Order Impact Model, which helps size order slices in a manner consistent with price-level population.

The graphs below illuminate the effects of these indicators on optimal execution horizon and therefore, performance results of hypothetical Arrival Price orders.


Impact Model: MBO
Payup Model: PayupAI
Liquidity Cost:
Implicit cost of liquidity per lot
Volatility:
Normal volatility in dollar terms

 

Drift:
Short-term directional drift
Seconds Spent:
Seconds spent in simulated execution

 

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Buy
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
0.8500
Slippage Sweep
0.6550
Arrival Price
5,916.3750
Average Total
5,917.2250
Destination Price
5,917.8750
Sweep to Fill
5,916.5700
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-06-02T12:52:36.65 SIM:ESM5 Buy 7 5918 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:52:32.544 SIM:ESM5 Buy 23 5917.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:52:32.544 SIM:ESM5 Buy 2 5917.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:52:27.514 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5917 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:52:23.522 SIM:ESM5 Buy 3 5916.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:52:21.476 SIM:ESM5 Buy 2 5916.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:52:37.965 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5918 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:52:29.668 SIM:ESM5 Buy 3 5917 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:52:27.514 SIM:ESM5 Buy 4 5917 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:52:24.512 SIM:ESM5 Buy 3 5916.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:52:21.402 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5916.5 Aggressive

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Sell
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
0.0400
Slippage Sweep
-0.2050
Arrival Price
5,916.8750
Average Total
5,916.8350
Destination Price
5,917.1250
Sweep to Fill
5,916.6300
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-06-02T12:51:50.012 SIM:ESM5 Sell 6 5916.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:51:50.012 SIM:ESM5 Sell 18 5917 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:51:49.012 SIM:ESM5 Sell 3 5916.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:51:49.012 SIM:ESM5 Sell 6 5916.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:51:42.935 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5916.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:51:47.971 SIM:ESM5 Sell 4 5916.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:51:47.02 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5916.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:51:44.951 SIM:ESM5 Sell 5 5916.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:51:43.964 SIM:ESM5 Sell 4 5916.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:51:41.924 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5916.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:51:41.112 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5916.75 Aggressive

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Buy
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
-0.4800
Slippage Sweep
-0.6700
Arrival Price
5,917.6250
Average Total
5,917.1450
Destination Price
5,916.8750
Sweep to Fill
5,917.8150
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-06-02T12:51:37.705 SIM:ESM5 Buy 9 5917.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:51:37.705 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5917 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:51:37.705 SIM:ESM5 Buy 18 5917.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:51:37.705 SIM:ESM5 Buy 6 5917 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:51:39.049 SIM:ESM5 Buy 15 5917 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:51:36.949 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5917.5 Passive

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Sell
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
0.2700
Slippage Sweep
0.0400
Arrival Price
5,916.1250
Average Total
5,915.8550
Destination Price
5,916.1250
Sweep to Fill
5,915.8950
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-06-02T12:50:59.427 SIM:ESM5 Sell 2 5915.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:51:05.521 SIM:ESM5 Sell 8 5916 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:51:03.522 SIM:ESM5 Sell 16 5916 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:51:00.43 SIM:ESM5 Sell 8 5915.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:50:58.418 SIM:ESM5 Sell 8 5915.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:50:55.423 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5915.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:50:52.476 SIM:ESM5 Sell 2 5915.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:50:52.476 SIM:ESM5 Sell 2 5915.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:50:52.476 SIM:ESM5 Sell 2 5915.75 Passive
2025-06-02T12:50:50.714 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5915.75 Aggressive

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Buy
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
0.5150
Slippage Sweep
0.1650
Arrival Price
5,915.8750
Average Total
5,916.3900
Destination Price
5,916.1250
Sweep to Fill
5,916.2250
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-06-02T12:50:50.016 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5916.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:50:49.68 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5916 Passive
2025-06-02T12:50:46.44 SIM:ESM5 Buy 10 5916.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:50:42.842 SIM:ESM5 Buy 2 5916 Passive
2025-06-02T12:50:42.842 SIM:ESM5 Buy 2 5916 Passive
2025-06-02T12:50:42.842 SIM:ESM5 Buy 2 5916 Passive
2025-06-02T12:50:36.671 SIM:ESM5 Buy 10 5916.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:50:31.777 SIM:ESM5 Buy 7 5916.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:50:30.338 SIM:ESM5 Buy 2 5916.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:50:30.338 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5916.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:50:30.338 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5916.25 Passive
2025-06-02T12:50:30.338 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5916.25 Passive
2025-06-02T12:50:30.338 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5916.25 Passive
2025-06-02T12:50:28.512 SIM:ESM5 Buy 5 5916.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:50:27.524 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5916.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:50:26.852 SIM:ESM5 Buy 2 5916.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:50:25.635 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5916.25 Aggressive

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Sell
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
0.0850
Slippage Sweep
-0.0700
Arrival Price
5,917.6250
Average Total
5,917.5400
Destination Price
5,917.6250
Sweep to Fill
5,917.4700
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-06-02T12:49:44.522 SIM:ESM5 Sell 9 5917.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:49:54.933 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5917.75 Passive
2025-06-02T12:49:48.662 SIM:ESM5 Sell 15 5917.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:49:42.613 SIM:ESM5 Sell 5 5917.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:49:48.024 SIM:ESM5 Sell 2 5917.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:49:48.024 SIM:ESM5 Sell 2 5917.75 Passive
2025-06-02T12:49:48.024 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5917.75 Passive
2025-06-02T12:49:48.024 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5917.75 Passive
2025-06-02T12:49:46.729 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5917.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:49:46.728 SIM:ESM5 Sell 9 5917.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:49:44.521 SIM:ESM5 Sell 3 5917.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:49:41.491 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5917.75 Aggressive

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Buy
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
0.0650
Slippage Sweep
-0.1850
Arrival Price
5,917.8750
Average Total
5,917.9400
Destination Price
5,917.6250
Sweep to Fill
5,918.1250
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-06-02T12:49:39.222 SIM:ESM5 Buy 12 5918 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:49:35.361 SIM:ESM5 Buy 14 5918 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:49:34.412 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5918 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:49:41.218 SIM:ESM5 Buy 2 5917.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:49:40.225 SIM:ESM5 Buy 2 5917.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:49:29.1 SIM:ESM5 Buy 2 5918 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:49:28.136 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5918 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:49:35.361 SIM:ESM5 Buy 8 5918 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:49:27.051 SIM:ESM5 Buy 7 5917.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:49:26.037 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5917.75 Aggressive

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Sell
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
0.3500
Slippage Sweep
0.0700
Arrival Price
5,918.3750
Average Total
5,918.0250
Destination Price
5,918.1250
Sweep to Fill
5,918.0950
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-06-02T12:48:54.758 SIM:ESM5 Sell 3 5918 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:48:48.719 SIM:ESM5 Sell 4 5917.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:48:42.848 SIM:ESM5 Sell 12 5918.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:48:42.848 SIM:ESM5 Sell 2 5918.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:48:42.848 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5918.5 Passive
2025-06-02T12:48:53.612 SIM:ESM5 Sell 17 5918 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:48:48.727 SIM:ESM5 Sell 10 5917.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:48:41.512 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5918.25 Aggressive

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Buy
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
0.6350
Slippage Sweep
0.3350
Arrival Price
5,917.8750
Average Total
5,918.5100
Destination Price
5,918.3750
Sweep to Fill
5,918.1750
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-06-02T12:48:40.634 SIM:ESM5 Buy 2 5918.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:48:27.484 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5918.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:48:24.751 SIM:ESM5 Buy 4 5918.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:48:24.013 SIM:ESM5 Buy 2 5918.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:48:24.013 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5918.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:48:24.013 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5918.25 Passive
2025-06-02T12:48:22.518 SIM:ESM5 Buy 4 5918.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:48:22.362 SIM:ESM5 Buy 9 5918.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:48:20.375 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5918 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:48:34.618 SIM:ESM5 Buy 14 5919 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:48:19.423 SIM:ESM5 Buy 8 5918 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:48:18.437 SIM:ESM5 Buy 2 5918 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:48:17.412 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5918 Aggressive

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Sell
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
-0.1250
Slippage Sweep
-0.2500
Arrival Price
5,917.6250
Average Total
5,917.7500
Destination Price
5,917.8750
Sweep to Fill
5,917.5000
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-06-02T12:47:46.817 SIM:ESM5 Sell 18 5917.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:47:43.725 SIM:ESM5 Sell 5 5917.75 Passive
2025-06-02T12:47:43.725 SIM:ESM5 Sell 26 5917.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:47:43.041 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5917.75 Passive

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Buy
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
-0.0350
Slippage Sweep
-0.2550
Arrival Price
5,918.1250
Average Total
5,918.0900
Destination Price
5,917.8750
Sweep to Fill
5,918.3450
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-06-02T12:47:42.405 SIM:ESM5 Buy 5 5918 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:47:42.405 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5917.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:47:41.423 SIM:ESM5 Buy 4 5918.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:47:41.423 SIM:ESM5 Buy 23 5918 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:47:42.404 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5917.75 Passive
2025-06-02T12:47:40.368 SIM:ESM5 Buy 6 5918.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:47:39.537 SIM:ESM5 Buy 4 5918.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:47:39.537 SIM:ESM5 Buy 3 5918.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:47:38.412 SIM:ESM5 Buy 2 5918.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:47:36.357 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5918.25 Aggressive

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Sell
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
-0.1100
Slippage Sweep
-0.3200
Arrival Price
5,918.1250
Average Total
5,918.2350
Destination Price
5,918.6250
Sweep to Fill
5,917.9150
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-06-02T12:47:00.629 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5918 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:47:05.712 SIM:ESM5 Sell 8 5918.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:47:05.712 SIM:ESM5 Sell 20 5918.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:47:04.712 SIM:ESM5 Sell 7 5918 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:47:02.812 SIM:ESM5 Sell 10 5918 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:47:01.623 SIM:ESM5 Sell 2 5918 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:46:59.62 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5917.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:46:58.537 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5918 Aggressive

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Buy
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
-0.1250
Slippage Sweep
-0.2700
Arrival Price
5,918.3750
Average Total
5,918.2500
Destination Price
5,918.1250
Sweep to Fill
5,918.5200
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-06-02T12:46:58.012 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5918.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:46:58.012 SIM:ESM5 Buy 11 5918.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:46:56.942 SIM:ESM5 Buy 9 5918.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:46:56.72 SIM:ESM5 Buy 6 5918.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:46:56.012 SIM:ESM5 Buy 22 5918.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:46:55.248 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5918.25 Passive

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Sell
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
0.3450
Slippage Sweep
-0.0250
Arrival Price
5,919.1250
Average Total
5,918.7800
Destination Price
5,919.1250
Sweep to Fill
5,918.7550
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-06-02T12:46:24.56 SIM:ESM5 Sell 4 5919 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:46:23.012 SIM:ESM5 Sell 15 5919 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:46:23.012 SIM:ESM5 Sell 4 5919 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:46:18.507 SIM:ESM5 Sell 7 5918.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:46:18.507 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5918.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:46:18.507 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5918.75 Passive
2025-06-02T12:46:18.507 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5918.75 Passive
2025-06-02T12:46:18.507 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5918.75 Passive
2025-06-02T12:46:15.188 SIM:ESM5 Sell 5 5918.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:46:20.921 SIM:ESM5 Sell 8 5918.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:46:12.959 SIM:ESM5 Sell 2 5919 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:46:11.933 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5919 Aggressive

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Buy
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
0.0000
Slippage Sweep
-0.2250
Arrival Price
5,919.1250
Average Total
5,919.1250
Destination Price
5,918.8750
Sweep to Fill
5,919.3500
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-06-02T12:46:08.912 SIM:ESM5 Buy 12 5919 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:46:07.76 SIM:ESM5 Buy 8 5919.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:46:06.938 SIM:ESM5 Buy 5 5919.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:46:04.715 SIM:ESM5 Buy 2 5919.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:46:10.277 SIM:ESM5 Buy 13 5919 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:46:05.723 SIM:ESM5 Buy 4 5919.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:46:04.153 SIM:ESM5 Buy 5 5919.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:46:02.733 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5919.25 Aggressive