Arrival Price AI Analytics

CQG AI Algos


The Arrival Price Algorithm is driven by short-term realized volatility and drift signals as well as market-implied cost of liquidity to execute within a risk-optimized time horizon using trader-defined slippage expectations. Arrival Price is benchmarked against mid-market and sweep to fill (market order) metrics.

"Liquidity Cost, Volatility, and Drift" are the quantities used by the algorithm to compute a theoretically optimal Equilibrium Trading Horizon (White Paper). "Seconds spent" reflects the practical application of this horizon over simulated dynamic market conditions. A "fill stream" is also included to demonstrate the effects of the Market By Order Impact Model, which helps size order slices in a manner consistent with price-level population.

The graphs below illuminate the effects of these indicators on optimal execution horizon and therefore, performance results of hypothetical Arrival Price orders.


Impact Model: MBO
Payup Model: PayupAI
Liquidity Cost:
Implicit cost of liquidity per lot
Volatility:
Normal volatility in dollar terms

 

Drift:
Short-term directional drift
Seconds Spent:
Seconds spent in simulated execution

 

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Buy
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
0.6450
Slippage Sweep
0.3850
Arrival Price
5,921.3750
Average Total
5,922.0200
Destination Price
5,921.8750
Sweep to Fill
5,921.6350
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-06-02T12:25:05.759 SIM:ESM5 Buy 2 5922 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:25:02.725 SIM:ESM5 Buy 3 5922 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:24:58.677 SIM:ESM5 Buy 6 5922 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:24:51.62 SIM:ESM5 Buy 3 5922.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:24:39.758 SIM:ESM5 Buy 17 5922 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:24:37.512 SIM:ESM5 Buy 2 5921.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:24:55.659 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5922.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:24:40.967 SIM:ESM5 Buy 9 5922.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:24:36.475 SIM:ESM5 Buy 3 5921.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:24:35.527 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5921.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:24:33.618 SIM:ESM5 Buy 2 5921.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:24:32.425 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5921.5 Aggressive

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Sell
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
-0.3100
Slippage Sweep
-0.5200
Arrival Price
5,921.3750
Average Total
5,921.6850
Destination Price
5,921.8750
Sweep to Fill
5,921.1650
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-06-02T12:24:01.933 SIM:ESM5 Sell 3 5921.75 Passive
2025-06-02T12:24:01.933 SIM:ESM5 Sell 3 5921.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:24:01.933 SIM:ESM5 Sell 35 5921.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:24:00.926 SIM:ESM5 Sell 2 5921.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:23:59.901 SIM:ESM5 Sell 6 5921.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:23:59.057 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5921.25 Aggressive

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Buy
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
0.5300
Slippage Sweep
0.2300
Arrival Price
5,921.1250
Average Total
5,921.6550
Destination Price
5,921.6250
Sweep to Fill
5,921.4250
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-06-02T12:23:58.436 SIM:ESM5 Buy 2 5921.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:23:58.436 SIM:ESM5 Buy 2 5921.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:23:50.389 SIM:ESM5 Buy 10 5921.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:23:44.312 SIM:ESM5 Buy 7 5921.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:23:41.271 SIM:ESM5 Buy 9 5921.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:23:58.436 SIM:ESM5 Buy 2 5921.5 Passive
2025-06-02T12:23:40.246 SIM:ESM5 Buy 4 5921.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:23:39.312 SIM:ESM5 Buy 2 5921.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:23:52.37 SIM:ESM5 Buy 3 5921.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:23:52.37 SIM:ESM5 Buy 2 5921.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:23:45.324 SIM:ESM5 Buy 5 5921.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:23:38.256 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5921.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:23:37.096 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5921.25 Aggressive

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Sell
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
0.3150
Slippage Sweep
0.1750
Arrival Price
5,919.6250
Average Total
5,919.3100
Destination Price
5,919.7500
Sweep to Fill
5,919.4850
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-06-02T12:22:54.676 SIM:ESM5 Sell 3 5919.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:22:49.692 SIM:ESM5 Sell 2 5919.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:22:48.618 SIM:ESM5 Sell 2 5919.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:22:46.612 SIM:ESM5 Sell 4 5919.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:22:44.573 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5919.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:23:05.726 SIM:ESM5 Sell 4 5919.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:22:52.653 SIM:ESM5 Sell 9 5919.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:22:45.617 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5919.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:22:43.595 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5919.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:23:04.724 SIM:ESM5 Sell 6 5919.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:22:53.632 SIM:ESM5 Sell 6 5919 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:22:50.656 SIM:ESM5 Sell 8 5919.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:22:47.665 SIM:ESM5 Sell 2 5919.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:22:43.122 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5919.5 Aggressive

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Buy
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
0.0450
Slippage Sweep
-0.1650
Arrival Price
5,919.8750
Average Total
5,919.9200
Destination Price
5,919.6250
Sweep to Fill
5,920.0850
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-06-02T12:22:41.213 SIM:ESM5 Buy 3 5919.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:22:42.245 SIM:ESM5 Buy 3 5920 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:22:42.245 SIM:ESM5 Buy 14 5919.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:22:40.165 SIM:ESM5 Buy 8 5919.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:22:39.147 SIM:ESM5 Buy 2 5920.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:22:39.147 SIM:ESM5 Buy 3 5920 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:22:39.147 SIM:ESM5 Buy 2 5920 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:22:39.146 SIM:ESM5 Buy 2 5920 Passive
2025-06-02T12:22:39.146 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5920 Passive
2025-06-02T12:22:39.146 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5920 Passive
2025-06-02T12:22:36.257 SIM:ESM5 Buy 6 5920.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:22:36.257 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5920 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:22:35.113 SIM:ESM5 Buy 2 5920 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:22:34.985 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5920 Passive
2025-06-02T12:22:34.087 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5920.25 Aggressive

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Sell
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
-0.1250
Slippage Sweep
-0.3550
Arrival Price
5,920.8750
Average Total
5,921.0000
Destination Price
5,921.1250
Sweep to Fill
5,920.6450
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-06-02T12:22:02.688 SIM:ESM5 Sell 8 5921 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:22:01.719 SIM:ESM5 Sell 3 5921 Passive
2025-06-02T12:22:01.719 SIM:ESM5 Sell 28 5921 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:22:00.658 SIM:ESM5 Sell 10 5921 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:21:59.83 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5921 Passive

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Buy
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
0.8850
Slippage Sweep
0.6000
Arrival Price
5,919.1250
Average Total
5,920.0100
Destination Price
5,920.8750
Sweep to Fill
5,919.4100
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-06-02T12:21:59.144 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5921 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:21:45.978 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5920 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:21:42.935 SIM:ESM5 Buy 8 5920 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:21:40.917 SIM:ESM5 Buy 2 5919.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:21:52.129 SIM:ESM5 Buy 3 5920 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:21:49.01 SIM:ESM5 Buy 11 5920 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:21:39.909 SIM:ESM5 Buy 2 5919.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:21:38.892 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5919.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:21:36.912 SIM:ESM5 Buy 2 5919.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:21:55.197 SIM:ESM5 Buy 4 5920.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:21:55.19 SIM:ESM5 Buy 12 5920.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:21:53.121 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5920 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:21:35.86 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5919.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:21:34.851 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5919.25 Aggressive

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Sell
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
0.2150
Slippage Sweep
0.0200
Arrival Price
5,921.3750
Average Total
5,921.1600
Destination Price
5,921.6250
Sweep to Fill
5,921.1800
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-06-02T12:20:59.424 SIM:ESM5 Sell 5 5921 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:20:57.556 SIM:ESM5 Sell 3 5921 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:20:54.377 SIM:ESM5 Sell 11 5920.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:20:53.373 SIM:ESM5 Sell 3 5921 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:20:51.384 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5920.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:21:01.464 SIM:ESM5 Sell 23 5921.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:20:50.515 SIM:ESM5 Sell 3 5920.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:20:49.475 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5921.25 Aggressive

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Buy
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
-0.3050
Slippage Sweep
-0.4700
Arrival Price
5,921.8750
Average Total
5,921.5700
Destination Price
5,921.3750
Sweep to Fill
5,922.0400
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-06-02T12:20:48.846 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5921.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:20:48.846 SIM:ESM5 Buy 32 5921.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:20:47.913 SIM:ESM5 Buy 6 5921.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:20:47.913 SIM:ESM5 Buy 2 5921.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:20:47.913 SIM:ESM5 Buy 2 5921.5 Passive
2025-06-02T12:20:47.825 SIM:ESM5 Buy 6 5921.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:20:47.65 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5921.75 Passive

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Sell
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
0.1750
Slippage Sweep
-0.1150
Arrival Price
5,922.6250
Average Total
5,922.4500
Destination Price
5,921.8750
Sweep to Fill
5,922.3350
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-06-02T12:20:05.269 SIM:ESM5 Sell 12 5922.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:20:04.07 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5922.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:20:16.55 SIM:ESM5 Sell 5 5922 Passive
2025-06-02T12:20:09.819 SIM:ESM5 Sell 7 5922.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:20:06.162 SIM:ESM5 Sell 5 5922.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:20:06.161 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5922.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:20:03.112 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5922.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:20:08.158 SIM:ESM5 Sell 17 5922.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:20:02.05 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5922.5 Aggressive

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Buy
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
-0.1100
Slippage Sweep
-0.4000
Arrival Price
5,922.8750
Average Total
5,922.7650
Destination Price
5,922.6250
Sweep to Fill
5,923.1650
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-06-02T12:19:59.902 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5923 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:20:01.349 SIM:ESM5 Buy 6 5922.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:20:01.349 SIM:ESM5 Buy 9 5922.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:20:01.349 SIM:ESM5 Buy 24 5922.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:20:00.343 SIM:ESM5 Buy 8 5922.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:19:59.902 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5923 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:19:59.338 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5923 Aggressive

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Sell
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
-0.0600
Slippage Sweep
-0.4050
Arrival Price
5,922.1250
Average Total
5,922.1850
Destination Price
5,922.3750
Sweep to Fill
5,921.7800
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-06-02T12:19:24.912 SIM:ESM5 Sell 20 5922.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:19:24.104 SIM:ESM5 Sell 3 5922 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:19:27.911 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5922 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:19:27.911 SIM:ESM5 Sell 17 5922.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:19:22.896 SIM:ESM5 Sell 6 5922 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:19:22.026 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5922 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:19:20.925 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5922 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:19:19.813 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5922 Aggressive

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Buy
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
0.3700
Slippage Sweep
0.1100
Arrival Price
5,921.8750
Average Total
5,922.2450
Destination Price
5,922.1250
Sweep to Fill
5,922.1350
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-06-02T12:19:13.214 SIM:ESM5 Buy 2 5922.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:19:03.855 SIM:ESM5 Buy 13 5922 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:18:56.764 SIM:ESM5 Buy 2 5922.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:18:55.475 SIM:ESM5 Buy 6 5922.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:18:46.959 SIM:ESM5 Buy 2 5922.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:18:46.959 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5922.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:18:46.959 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5922.25 Passive
2025-06-02T12:18:45.636 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5922.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:19:19.312 SIM:ESM5 Buy 2 5922.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:19:05.861 SIM:ESM5 Buy 3 5922 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:19:03.15 SIM:ESM5 Buy 5 5922.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:19:00.829 SIM:ESM5 Buy 3 5922.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:19:00.829 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5922.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:18:59.807 SIM:ESM5 Buy 2 5922 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:18:44.662 SIM:ESM5 Buy 2 5922 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:18:48.768 SIM:ESM5 Buy 3 5922.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:18:43.656 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5922 Aggressive

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Sell
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
0.2400
Slippage Sweep
0.0800
Arrival Price
5,922.3750
Average Total
5,922.1350
Destination Price
5,922.3750
Sweep to Fill
5,922.2150
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-06-02T12:18:11.66 SIM:ESM5 Sell 13 5922.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:18:09.712 SIM:ESM5 Sell 3 5922.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:18:12.726 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5922.5 Passive
2025-06-02T12:18:12.726 SIM:ESM5 Sell 2 5922.5 Passive
2025-06-02T12:18:12.726 SIM:ESM5 Sell 2 5922.5 Passive
2025-06-02T12:17:55.488 SIM:ESM5 Sell 5 5922.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:18:07.334 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5921.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:18:07.334 SIM:ESM5 Sell 6 5921.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:18:07.334 SIM:ESM5 Sell 2 5922 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:18:07.333 SIM:ESM5 Sell 2 5922 Passive
2025-06-02T12:18:07.333 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5922 Passive
2025-06-02T12:18:07.333 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5922 Passive
2025-06-02T12:18:02.622 SIM:ESM5 Sell 4 5921.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:17:56.735 SIM:ESM5 Sell 6 5922.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:17:54.612 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5922.25 Aggressive

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Buy
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
0.0100
Slippage Sweep
-0.2550
Arrival Price
5,922.6250
Average Total
5,922.6350
Destination Price
5,922.3750
Sweep to Fill
5,922.8900
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-06-02T12:17:50.979 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5922.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:17:49.94 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5922.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:17:49.14 SIM:ESM5 Buy 2 5922.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:17:54.051 SIM:ESM5 Buy 19 5922.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:17:54.05 SIM:ESM5 Buy 18 5922.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:17:53.439 SIM:ESM5 Buy 3 5922.5 Passive
2025-06-02T12:17:52.146 SIM:ESM5 Buy 5 5922.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:17:48.11 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5922.75 Aggressive