Arrival Price AI Analytics

CQG AI Algos


The Arrival Price Algorithm is driven by short-term realized volatility and drift signals as well as market-implied cost of liquidity to execute within a risk-optimized time horizon using trader-defined slippage expectations. Arrival Price is benchmarked against mid-market and sweep to fill (market order) metrics.

"Liquidity Cost, Volatility, and Drift" are the quantities used by the algorithm to compute a theoretically optimal Equilibrium Trading Horizon (White Paper). "Seconds spent" reflects the practical application of this horizon over simulated dynamic market conditions. A "fill stream" is also included to demonstrate the effects of the Market By Order Impact Model, which helps size order slices in a manner consistent with price-level population.

The graphs below illuminate the effects of these indicators on optimal execution horizon and therefore, performance results of hypothetical Arrival Price orders.


Impact Model: MBO
Payup Model: PayupAI
Liquidity Cost:
Implicit cost of liquidity per lot
Volatility:
Normal volatility in dollar terms

 

Drift:
Short-term directional drift
Seconds Spent:
Seconds spent in simulated execution

 

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Sell
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
-0.2150
Slippage Sweep
-0.5100
Arrival Price
5,918.8750
Average Total
5,919.0900
Destination Price
5,919.1250
Sweep to Fill
5,918.5800
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-06-02T12:45:32.142 SIM:ESM5 Sell 2 5919.25 Passive
2025-06-02T12:45:30.714 SIM:ESM5 Sell 30 5919 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:45:30.714 SIM:ESM5 Sell 17 5919.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:45:29.722 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5918.75 Aggressive

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Buy
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
0.4100
Slippage Sweep
0.1450
Arrival Price
5,918.6250
Average Total
5,919.0350
Destination Price
5,919.1250
Sweep to Fill
5,918.8900
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-06-02T12:45:21.868 SIM:ESM5 Buy 3 5919.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:45:19.904 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5919.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:45:05.739 SIM:ESM5 Buy 2 5918.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:45:28.883 SIM:ESM5 Buy 3 5919.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:45:28.883 SIM:ESM5 Buy 4 5919.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:45:28.883 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5919 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:45:28.883 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5919 Passive
2025-06-02T12:45:28.883 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5919 Passive
2025-06-02T12:45:28.883 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5919 Passive
2025-06-02T12:45:27.191 SIM:ESM5 Buy 8 5919.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:45:27.191 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5919 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:45:27.19 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5919 Passive
2025-06-02T12:45:12.994 SIM:ESM5 Buy 10 5919 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:45:08.812 SIM:ESM5 Buy 6 5918.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:45:07.933 SIM:ESM5 Buy 2 5918.75 Passive
2025-06-02T12:45:07.933 SIM:ESM5 Buy 2 5918.75 Passive
2025-06-02T12:45:07.932 SIM:ESM5 Buy 2 5918.75 Passive
2025-06-02T12:45:03.735 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5918.75 Aggressive

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Sell
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
-0.0750
Slippage Sweep
-0.3000
Arrival Price
5,918.8750
Average Total
5,918.9500
Destination Price
5,919.1250
Sweep to Fill
5,918.6500
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-06-02T12:44:33.154 SIM:ESM5 Sell 8 5919 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:44:25.969 SIM:ESM5 Sell 5 5919 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:44:32.117 SIM:ESM5 Sell 10 5918.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:44:32.117 SIM:ESM5 Sell 13 5919 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:44:26.989 SIM:ESM5 Sell 13 5919 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:44:25.109 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5919 Passive

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Buy
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
0.4850
Slippage Sweep
0.1550
Arrival Price
5,918.3750
Average Total
5,918.8600
Destination Price
5,919.1250
Sweep to Fill
5,918.7050
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-06-02T12:44:15.014 SIM:ESM5 Buy 8 5919 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:44:13.987 SIM:ESM5 Buy 8 5919 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:44:12.975 SIM:ESM5 Buy 2 5919 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:44:11.012 SIM:ESM5 Buy 8 5919.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:44:10.012 SIM:ESM5 Buy 2 5919 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:44:08.112 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5919 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:43:57.754 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5918.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:43:58.793 SIM:ESM5 Buy 12 5918.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:43:56.768 SIM:ESM5 Buy 2 5918.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:43:55.767 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5918.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:43:54.812 SIM:ESM5 Buy 2 5918.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:44:24.322 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5919 Passive
2025-06-02T12:44:01.254 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5918.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:43:53.729 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5918.5 Aggressive

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Sell
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
0.0750
Slippage Sweep
-0.1050
Arrival Price
5,919.6250
Average Total
5,919.5500
Destination Price
5,919.8750
Sweep to Fill
5,919.4450
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-06-02T12:43:16.183 SIM:ESM5 Sell 5 5919.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:43:23.144 SIM:ESM5 Sell 8 5919.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:43:23.144 SIM:ESM5 Sell 14 5919.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:43:22.216 SIM:ESM5 Sell 5 5919.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:43:22.216 SIM:ESM5 Sell 4 5919.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:43:20.346 SIM:ESM5 Sell 4 5919.5 Passive
2025-06-02T12:43:15.079 SIM:ESM5 Sell 5 5919.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:43:14.159 SIM:ESM5 Sell 2 5919.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:43:17.127 SIM:ESM5 Sell 2 5919.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:43:12.812 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5919.5 Aggressive

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Buy
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
-0.2100
Slippage Sweep
-0.4100
Arrival Price
5,920.3750
Average Total
5,920.1650
Destination Price
5,919.6250
Sweep to Fill
5,920.5750
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-06-02T12:43:07.656 SIM:ESM5 Buy 4 5920.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:43:04.564 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5920.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:43:11.655 SIM:ESM5 Buy 20 5920 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:43:11.655 SIM:ESM5 Buy 11 5919.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:43:10.676 SIM:ESM5 Buy 6 5920.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:43:09.612 SIM:ESM5 Buy 5 5920.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:43:08.619 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5920.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:43:06.646 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5920.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:43:03.732 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5920.5 Aggressive

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Sell
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
-0.2500
Slippage Sweep
-0.4550
Arrival Price
5,920.1250
Average Total
5,920.3750
Destination Price
5,920.6250
Sweep to Fill
5,919.9200
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-06-02T12:42:33.232 SIM:ESM5 Sell 12 5920.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:42:32.212 SIM:ESM5 Sell 14 5920.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:42:32.212 SIM:ESM5 Sell 16 5920.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:42:31.622 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5920.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:42:31.622 SIM:ESM5 Sell 2 5920.25 Passive
2025-06-02T12:42:31.622 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5920.25 Passive
2025-06-02T12:42:31.622 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5920.25 Passive
2025-06-02T12:42:30.37 SIM:ESM5 Sell 2 5920 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:42:29.376 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5920 Aggressive

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Buy
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
0.9700
Slippage Sweep
0.7600
Arrival Price
5,918.8750
Average Total
5,919.8450
Destination Price
5,920.1250
Sweep to Fill
5,919.0850
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-06-02T12:42:21.076 SIM:ESM5 Buy 12 5920.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:42:09.376 SIM:ESM5 Buy 4 5920.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:42:09.376 SIM:ESM5 Buy 2 5920 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:42:09.376 SIM:ESM5 Buy 2 5920 Passive
2025-06-02T12:42:09.376 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5920 Passive
2025-06-02T12:42:09.376 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5920 Passive
2025-06-02T12:42:09.375 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5920 Passive
2025-06-02T12:42:09.375 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5920 Passive
2025-06-02T12:42:05.126 SIM:ESM5 Buy 3 5919.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:42:28.833 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5920.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:42:20.295 SIM:ESM5 Buy 7 5919.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:42:17.012 SIM:ESM5 Buy 5 5919.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:42:04.601 SIM:ESM5 Buy 3 5919.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:42:02.84 SIM:ESM5 Buy 4 5919.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:42:01.906 SIM:ESM5 Buy 2 5919.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:41:59.826 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5919 Aggressive

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Sell
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
-0.0650
Slippage Sweep
-0.2950
Arrival Price
5,920.6250
Average Total
5,920.6900
Destination Price
5,919.6250
Sweep to Fill
5,920.3950
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-06-02T12:41:29.383 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5919.75 Passive
2025-06-02T12:41:11.312 SIM:ESM5 Sell 16 5920.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:41:10.433 SIM:ESM5 Sell 4 5920.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:41:11.312 SIM:ESM5 Sell 25 5920.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:41:10.493 SIM:ESM5 Sell 3 5920.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:41:08.541 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5920.5 Aggressive

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Buy
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
-0.1200
Slippage Sweep
-0.3700
Arrival Price
5,920.8750
Average Total
5,920.7550
Destination Price
5,920.6250
Sweep to Fill
5,921.1250
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-06-02T12:41:08.013 SIM:ESM5 Buy 11 5920.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:41:03.416 SIM:ESM5 Buy 2 5920.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:41:01.84 SIM:ESM5 Buy 28 5920.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:41:01.913 SIM:ESM5 Buy 8 5920.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:41:00.811 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5921 Aggressive

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Sell
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
0.0000
Slippage Sweep
-0.2050
Arrival Price
5,920.1250
Average Total
5,920.1250
Destination Price
5,920.6250
Sweep to Fill
5,919.9200
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-06-02T12:40:27.742 SIM:ESM5 Sell 2 5920.25 Passive
2025-06-02T12:40:26.512 SIM:ESM5 Sell 4 5920 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:40:25.415 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5920 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:40:24.457 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5919.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:40:23.401 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5919.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:40:23.401 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5919.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:40:20.666 SIM:ESM5 Sell 3 5920 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:40:15.424 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5920 Passive
2025-06-02T12:40:15.423 SIM:ESM5 Sell 2 5920 Passive
2025-06-02T12:40:30.464 SIM:ESM5 Sell 6 5920.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:40:30.464 SIM:ESM5 Sell 2 5920.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:40:29.611 SIM:ESM5 Sell 5 5920.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:40:29.611 SIM:ESM5 Sell 2 5920.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:40:29.611 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5920.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:40:29.611 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5920.5 Passive
2025-06-02T12:40:26.738 SIM:ESM5 Sell 10 5920 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:40:22.475 SIM:ESM5 Sell 2 5919.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:40:18.668 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5920 Passive
2025-06-02T12:40:16.388 SIM:ESM5 Sell 3 5920 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:40:14.357 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5920.25 Passive

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Buy
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
-0.1100
Slippage Sweep
-0.4450
Arrival Price
5,920.1250
Average Total
5,920.0150
Destination Price
5,919.8750
Sweep to Fill
5,920.4600
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-06-02T12:40:13.119 SIM:ESM5 Buy 3 5920 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:40:13.119 SIM:ESM5 Buy 11 5920 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:40:07.054 SIM:ESM5 Buy 7 5920 Passive
2025-06-02T12:40:07.053 SIM:ESM5 Buy 3 5920.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:40:07.053 SIM:ESM5 Buy 26 5920 Aggressive

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Sell
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
-0.1100
Slippage Sweep
-0.2950
Arrival Price
5,921.3750
Average Total
5,921.4850
Destination Price
5,921.6250
Sweep to Fill
5,921.1900
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-06-02T12:39:34.961 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5921.5 Passive
2025-06-02T12:39:36.803 SIM:ESM5 Sell 6 5921.5 Passive
2025-06-02T12:39:36.803 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5921.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:39:36.803 SIM:ESM5 Sell 31 5921.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:39:35.812 SIM:ESM5 Sell 8 5921.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:39:34.873 SIM:ESM5 Sell 3 5921.25 Aggressive

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Buy
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
0.4300
Slippage Sweep
0.1400
Arrival Price
5,920.8750
Average Total
5,921.3050
Destination Price
5,921.3750
Sweep to Fill
5,921.1650
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-06-02T12:39:33.452 SIM:ESM5 Buy 7 5921.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:39:23.928 SIM:ESM5 Buy 11 5921 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:39:28.812 SIM:ESM5 Buy 8 5921.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:39:27.813 SIM:ESM5 Buy 3 5921.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:39:17.738 SIM:ESM5 Buy 2 5921.25 Passive
2025-06-02T12:39:17.738 SIM:ESM5 Buy 2 5921.25 Passive
2025-06-02T12:39:17.738 SIM:ESM5 Buy 2 5921.25 Passive
2025-06-02T12:39:17.738 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5921.25 Passive
2025-06-02T12:39:17.738 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5921.25 Passive
2025-06-02T12:39:17.245 SIM:ESM5 Buy 5 5921.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:39:13.776 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5921.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:39:13.776 SIM:ESM5 Buy 2 5921.25 Passive
2025-06-02T12:39:13.776 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5921.25 Passive
2025-06-02T12:39:13.776 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5921.25 Passive
2025-06-02T12:39:12.707 SIM:ESM5 Buy 2 5921.25 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:39:11.688 SIM:ESM5 Buy 1 5921 Aggressive

Date - Time
CQG Symbol
EP
Exchange Symbol
SIM:ESM5
Buy / Sell
Sell
Quantity
50
Total Filled
50
Slippage
-0.1100
Slippage Sweep
-0.3450
Arrival Price
5,920.6250
Average Total
5,920.7350
Destination Price
5,921.1250
Sweep to Fill
5,920.3900
Diagnostics
TimestampSecuritySideLastSharesLastPriceAggressor
2025-06-02T12:38:40.184 SIM:ESM5 Sell 2 5920.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:38:40.184 SIM:ESM5 Sell 13 5921 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:38:39.178 SIM:ESM5 Sell 8 5920.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:38:39.178 SIM:ESM5 Sell 10 5920.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:38:38.208 SIM:ESM5 Sell 4 5920.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:38:36.505 SIM:ESM5 Sell 7 5920.5 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:38:35.212 SIM:ESM5 Sell 5 5920.75 Aggressive
2025-06-02T12:38:34.131 SIM:ESM5 Sell 1 5920.5 Aggressive